Reviewing My 10 Ed Tech Predictions Sure to Go Wrong in 2013
Last December I decided to join the many prognosticators out there and try to predict what changes were ahead in the realm of educational technology. I made 10 bold predictions that I hoped would come to pass in 2013, but knew in reality were still too far out of reach. In order to keep myself in check, I will now go over my predictions and how I think they turned out.
1. The “21st Century Skills” will be renamed something more appropriate and clever
Outcome – Not yet
It appears that we are still holding onto this crutch phrase for another year. I heard more references to “digital learning” and “immersive learning”, but it seems our default for technology related learning is still “21st Century Skills”. That said, I see us using terms like “soft skills” much more often, like Tracy Clark‘s clever bingo card shows here:
2. The Flipped Classroom will become commonplace
Outcome – Still pending
While true flipping isn’t happening wide-spread, there seems to be an exponential increase of teachers using a hybrid approach to extending learning. Flip-teaching advocates got a boost when flipper Todd Nelsoney was honored with 10 others at the White House as a Champion of Change.
3. The PC will make a comeback!
Outcome – WRONG
Ok, so in my original prediction, I threw this in there to see who was paying attention. PC sales have now had 6 quarters of decrease in sales and shipments according to this Gartner study in October.
4. A Non-Apple tablet will rule them all -
Outcome – No, but the playing field is leveling
I’d say a non-tablet like Google’s Chromebook seem to be making the biggest dent in this space. The Windows Surface tablet was given away to the first 10,000 attendees at ISTE and word on the street is they couldn’t give them all away. Apple is still ahead, but there are many more choices out there now than those that start with a little “i”.
5. More districts will realize there needs to be more instructional technology support staff
Outcome – Looking better
There has been a lot of movement in the educational/instructional technology support space for the better. While this is purely anecdotal, it seems that there are more positions being created and opened up in districts around the US. If I wanted to use a number, I’d say the amount of people asking me for the Eanes version of the Ed Tech Job description have tripled in the last year. As devices become less technical to use, this will only continue to increase as teachers need support more with ideas for integration rather than technical challenges.
6. Someone will finally name their child “#” -
Outcome – TRUE (or a hoax)
I probably should have researched this one a little better before posting the prediction. In late November of 2012 a couple reportedly announced the birth of their daughter “Hashtag Jameson”. While there is debate about whether or not this actually happened, it follows a trend. A Parisian couple actually named their kid “Like” after the Facebook interaction in 2011. Next up for 2014….a child named “Selfie”.
7. We will finally break away from accountability ratings based on high-stakes assessment
Outcome – Still a ways to go
Here in Texas our plans for an alternative accountability system were shot down when HB 2824 was vetoed by our “forward thinking” Governor. However, there are many more national rumblings about a shift away from a one-size-decimates-all test even in the wake of Common Core’s PARRC assessment planning to be field tested next year.
8. There will be a record turnout (and heat) for ISTE in San Antonio in June
Outcome – False (and false…barely)
According to ISTE’s blog there were approximately 13,100 attendees for this year’s ISTE conference. That would indicate a slight decline from the 13,212 attendees from San Diego the previous year. My sub-prediction that iPadpalooza would increase did come true as our attendance more than doubled. As for the record heat prediction, the hottest day in all of San Antonio happened on June 29th. Unfortunately for this prediction, that was 2 days after all the vendors, mariachis, and Surface tablets had left the Henry B. Gonzalez convention center. (well…maybe not all the Surface tablets)
9. Internet Memes will become the hieroglyphics of our culture
Outcome – On track
Just days after posting these predictions, a professor from Kansas State University posted in the comments section that he is now teaching the “science of memetics” in his digital media course.
10. My “Giving up email for Lent” experiment will be an epic success
Outcome – Fail, but lessons learned
While the experiment only lasted for 19 days, I learned a great deal about how we communicate and how our kids communicate. We are on the verge of a communication explosion. One prediction already coming true is how all our other forms of communication are being monitored and monetized. Keeping our youth educated on this will be an increasing challenge!
Well, that wraps up 2013. Looks like I was pretty far off on some of my predictions and close in others. I’ve got my work cut out for me in predicting Ed Tech in 2014, especially as articles like this are already coming out.
One thing is for certain, the future is unpredictable.