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Bold Predictions Sure to Go Wrong for 2019
It’s that time of year when we like to make resolutions, change part of our diet, and set out with some goals for our personal and professional selves. For me, this time of year marks an annual tradition of making some bold predictions that I think might come true in the coming year. Last year was by far my most successful year of predictions coming true (or mostly true), so with my new found (false) confidence, I’ve decided to really step it up this year with my prognostications.
I realize that some of this may seem far-reaching, but hey, I said “BOLD” right? Also, in looking back at some of my previous years, I noticed that my time frame may have been off by a year or two, but they still came true….eventually. (For the record, I don’t count those as accurate predictions) These predictions are a mix of technology, education, and some fun. Part of what makes this interesting is your feedback, so please drop your bold predictions in the comments below the post. Even if it’s crazy!
Virtual Reality takes fright…er….flight in the classroom
This past holiday, my lovely wife surprised me with an Oculus GO VR headset. This all-in-one headset doesn’t require a computer or a phone to use and within a few minutes of use, I immediately become both motion sick and mesmerized with possibilities in Education. Even though the graphics aren’t quite there yet, just the experience of riding on a virtual roller coaster or even looking out the window of a 97-story building immediately immerse you in the world. Imagine what that could look like in a classroom? I know that Google Expeditions and Nearpod 360 Cities do some of this, but the world I’m envisioning has interactions with the students. Imaging taking part in the American Revolution or being able to be a member in the audience during Mozart’s “Marriage of Figaro“? Or better yet….why not put yourself in the shoes of the actual conductor? With the now lower cost of these all-in-one devices and the mobility (no more lugging around a huge desktop) I can see a near future where Interactive VR plays a role in the learning experiences of our kids.
The Universal Translator will make learning a foreign language obsolete
This past couple of years, Google and other companies have really tried to capitalize on the idea of having a Universal Translator (think Ohura from Star Trek). The current versions of this are still fairly clunky, but I can see a not so distant future where learning a foreign language might not be that important. This doesn’t mean that all those LOTE (Languages Other Than English) teachers will be out of a job though. With an effective universal translator, knowing the culture and customs of foreign lands will become even more important should you accidentally say or gesture the wrong thing.
Alexa will accidentally burn down someone’s house
Ok, so this one is a little morbid, but is it really that far-fetched? I wrote this post last year about When Smart Homes Attack about how my kids almost froze and starved to death because I changed the wireless router on a snow day. There are a TON of smart home devices coming out of CES this week (including this awesome SMART block of wood) and with the “Internet of Things” taking over homes across the country, there are some inherent dangers. Like imagine someone asking Alexa to play Turn up the Heat by Justin Bieber only to have it accidentally fire up the fireplace or stove? I see a future Black Mirror episode or crime novel in our future where someone hacks the smart home to kill its inhabitants. (Ok…this is getting way too dark now)
Netflix will launch an EDU Version of its service
I’ve been pitching this to higher-ups at Netflix for the past couple of years, but all my emails and tweets go without a response. It seems to me that this is an opportunity for Netflix to expand its service to the educational market. My daughters already have their own customized channels full of educational content like Bill Nye and Magic School Bus. Netflix even offers one-time educational screening permission for certain programs and movies. We don’t want an educational environment where kids are just mindlessly consuming content, so this would have to be done with some fidelity, but I think there could be a potential use case where the teacher acts as the moderator of customized content for each student under a EDU subscription. Instead of binge watching…there would be binge learning!
Restaurants will post non-device zones similar to non-smoking areas
It seems that more and more we are facing an internal conflict of too much screen time (remember the smart wood I mentioned earlier?). Associated with us being glued to our screens is the feeling that we are doing too much “nocializing” (going out with friends only to be on your phone the entire time) rather than actual interaction. Don’t believe me? Walk through the airport sometime and see how many strangers are interacting with each other. Our district just went through a lengthly process evaluating our own use of technology in the classroom. The major concerns around screen time in schools is a valid one especially when you couple it with the heavy use of screens at home with kids after school. One of the major outcomes of our research was that we need to really educate and promote the purposeful use of technology in and out of schools. This isn’t just a school problem, it’s a social one. I predict that this year, in response to this, we will see restaurants begin to set up non-device zones for those that choose to not have their devices out. The only exception will be for people using their phone to read this post. (Ha!)
Someone will write a blog/paper using only predictive text
Imagine the world of the future and we can have access to our new home app using a mobile device? (that was all written with predictive text…scary isn’t it?) Surely someone will use predictive text to send a love letter, submit a college paper or even write out their wedding vows (see next prediction). Felix Jacomino actually crowd-sourced his predictive text poem a couple of years ago for his Ed Tech Poetry Slam. Here’s an example of a comedian who has re-written the Avengers script using predictive texts using an online tool called botnik. This could be a terribly lame prediction (begin predictive text) but it would also make the best way to play with some friends. Um….okay?
A couple will get married over Facetime
A couple of years ago I became an ordained online minister in order to be the officiant at my buddy Chris Parker’s wedding. It seems to me, that if for $50 and an online application I can become ordained, then surely some couple out there can be married without being physically in the same location. In doing some quick internet digging, it appears that getting married over the internet is still not legal. However, my guess is that with modern laws being updated all the time and with the hustle and bustle of our modern lifestyles, someone will get married via video chat. Some questions I would have around this would be: Do they have to put it online so there are witnesses? Can the officiant be virutal as well or can they be married by a virtual assistant (A.I.)? How do you kiss the bride? I can hear it now: “Do you have the Ring (camera)?”
There will be a FortniteEDU for schools
Remember when people laughed at the thought of Minecraft ever making its way to the classroom? A Microsoft buy-out later, MinecraftEDU has made it into our schools. Imagine a Battle Royale where you have to solve math problems to get weapons or complete a simile to get a shield potion? Doesn’t seem that far-fetched now does it? If anyone can make this happen, my money would be on Mike Washburn who has already done some work in this space. He was the first educator I can recall showing and presenting the educational values of Minecraft way back when. C’mon Mike! Make it happen!
Kohler’s new smart toilet
A SMART toilet will save someone’s life
Yes, these are a thing. It seems hard to imagine, but considering there is now something called “Poo Purri”, it doesn’t seem that far fetched. In fact, Kohler just announced their high-end smart toilets complete with mood lighting and built in speakers. While that’s cool, futurist Michio Kaku predicts in this video that smart toilets have the potential to detect a finite amount of cancer cells before it grows into a tumor. How incredible would that be? Also, I’m posting this because I have some guilt from an earlier prediction claiming that a smart home would kills someone (there’s always a balance, right?) These toilets will have an impact in schools and public sector jobs too as they will have the ability to detect drugs/alcohol in student-athletes or politicians, which could get real interesting…
LearnFestATX will again break the rules when it comes to a conference
Last year, as we transitioned from iPadpalooza to LearnFestATX we went into “beta” mode to test out some new concepts to engage adult learners. Admittedly, not all of them were great. However, a few of the ideas were HUGE successes that we plan to feature along with other unique engagement mechanisms this June. From silent disco keynotes to the “What’s HOT in Ed Tech” challenge, this summer’s event in Austin will hit you on all fronts. This year’s theme is “Ready Learner One” with a play on classic video games from our past. So if you’re ready to Dig Dug deeper, be sure to register now as this is should to be a Knock Out! (FYI – we are also accepting calls for proposals until Feb. 8 – accepted presenters can be part of the fun for FREE)
Robotics enter mainstream curriculum
Largely due to costs and complex programming, robotics has remained an after-school program or secondary elective. However, with new models of robotics like Sphero and Trashbots hitting the market at an affordable price AND coming with easy-to-use curriculum integration tools, this will be the year that robot goes from a “fun Friday” activity to mainstream. I may be cheating a bit on this one as Fred Benitez recently shared some science teachers at our middle school doing that very thing with Sphero and Anatomy:
THIS will be the year my children’s book series actually gets published
Third time is a charm right? I’ve had this false prediction on this post for the last two years and I think it’s time to make it happen. I even bought a website for it this past weekend so it better become a reality even if no one buys it. 🙂
There you have it. Twelve different bold predictions (a record for this post) on things I believe will happen during 2019. Like I stated at the beginning, I would love your thoughts on crazy, bold ideas that could happen in our near future as well. Comment below and thanks for reading!
Happy New Year everyone!
A Look Back: Bold Predictions for 2018
Making predictions isn’t easy folks. Let’s face it, even Miss Cleo sometimes got her prognostications incorrect. Every year as the calendar turns, I attempt to take a stab at some things I predict will happen in the upcoming year. These predictions are loosely based around education and technology and sometimes I get them right on the mark (like when Pearson lost its testing contract in Texas). Other times, I was way off. Like the time I predicted that someone would develop a Star Wars-themed charter school (although, of that, hopeful I am). Looking back at my 2018 predictions, it was a mixed bag as per usual but overall, my best year yet in terms of predictions. Let’s see how I did.
Prediction: AR will help us “see” students’ level of engagement
Outcome: Very Close
My main thought on this was that augmented reality would tell teachers student engagement levels by merely holding up their phone or iPad and seeing the students’ thoughts via an engagement meter. I was off on that part, but imagine my surprise when Adam Phyall (@askadam3) and I visited the start-up village section of #ISTE18 in Chicago and stumbled across BrainCoTech. This company specializes in helping kids focus and engaged with brain exercises where you control something on a screen the more you focus. Sound like science fiction? Or maybe something from a Black Mirror? Check out the video evidence below:
Prediction: A school will fully implement AI to help with learning disabilities
Outcome: “Alexa, is this true?” “Not quite yet”
As witnessed by my parenting fail with Amazon’s Echo Dot, we’ve still got a ways to go when it comes to AI and our kids. Artificial Intelligence has been used more and more in the classroom and most people probably didn’t even realize it. Any time a student using speech-to-text or a teacher asks Siri a question, the AI kicks in. While no school that I can find has “fully” implemented AI as the prediction states, there is some potential for AI to help with learning difficulties. Microsoft recently revealed their Presentation Translator and Seeing AI app to help with students that have visual or auditory impairments. The future on this is closer than we think. Now if I could just get Alexa to put away my laundry….
Prediction: “4D” technology will help kids truly experience history
Outcome: Still a little ways off
During a trip to Orlando last spring, I got to experience “The Void” – a 4D experience with Star Wars as the main theme. How it works: You and a team of 4 put on VR headsets and haptic-enabled vests. As you move through what is essentially a giant warehouse, you can actually reach out and touch objects, door handles, and even R2D2. During one treacherous mission, I had to walk on a catwalk over hot lava and could smell and feel the sulfuric heat beneath me. Theres some tremendous potential for this in the classroom, but I can tell you the cost to do this would quickly snap you back to reality. (see what I did there?)
Prediction: A Presidential pardon will happen via Twitter
Outcome: Nailed it! (sort of)
I don’t think was that much of a bold prediction, but who would predict that the present would tweet about pardoning himself as he did on June 4th of this year?
Prediction: This year #EdTechPoetrySlam becomes a thing
Outcome: Snap, Snap, Snap
With some ambition and a super-talented line-up of Ed Tech powerhouses, we were able to make this prediction a reality. Need proof? It’s now expanded to an international location thanks to Brett Salakas bringing it down under this past October. As far as the ISTE event this past summer, you had to be there to believe it. From Lisa Johnson’s and Brianna Hodges’ powerful words to Felix Jacomino’s campy Gilligan’s Island remix, for one magical night in Chicago, we were moved by just words. When all was said and done, Steve Dembo walked away with the championship belt with this stirring slam that invoked a TON of ed tech tools in a poetic way. (Come to Austin on June 12, 2019 for #LearnFestATX to see him defend his title!)
Prediction: A ride-sharing app for parents will be invented
Outcome: It already happened…sort of…
Apparently this was already the beginning of a thing when three moms launched the company HopSkipDrive in Los Angeles in 2014. However, this past summer, the company expanded to Denver and is looking to expand to other locations throughout the US. Drivers have to have a minimum of 5 years child-care experience and must past a 15-point background check before being hired to chauffeur kids as young as 6 to their next soccer game or play date. I can see it now: Teachers! Need to make some extra cash and have a car? Have I got the job for you!
Prediction: Oprah will run for president
Outcome: Incorrect
What next? Maybe Mark Cuban will run….
Prediction: Drones in education could be a thing
Outcome: Technically, correct
Hey, I did say drones “could be a thing” right? While this one is still a bit of stretch I did visit a school in McAllen, TX this summer that is having students work along side search-and-rescue and local agencies to use drones to track down criminals or find missing people. Now, if only they could get a cat out of a tree….
Prediction: “The Learning Festival” aka LearnFestATX launches with some unexpected twists
Outcome: Nailed it
The theme for this past summer’s event was “beta”. We limited registration to 200 people in order to test out 7 new concepts that we hadn’t seen at a conference or learning event before. The result? Mixed. Some of the experiments worked while others failed. But three of the best will be on FULL display this summer as we open up LearnFestATX to a wider audience and promise to bring “unique engagement” to each attendee. (Early bird pricing now available!) You’ll have to come to find out which won out.
Prediction: My new children’s book gets a publisher and is actually published!
Outcome: Nope
This marks the second year in a row that this has been a miss-hit on my predictions list. It’s time to think outside the box for 2019 as I’m now almost finished with it. Stay tuned.
Prediction: A Boba Fett movie will be announced
Outcome: TRUE
This was just for fun, but sure enough, following the release of Solo: A Star Wars Story movie, the announcement was made this past May with James Mangold from Logan fame directing. I can’t wait!
So ends my 6th year of making predictions. Like I said in the open, this was my best and most accurate year to date as I hit at greater than 50% for the first time. Tune back in some time early in 2019 for what is sure to be my best bold predictions ever!
If nothing else, I can guarantee one prediction to come true: It will be marginally entertaining.
A Look Back: Bold Predictions for 2017
This marks the 5th year I’ve laid out a series of bold predictions around education and technology. Some years I’ve hit it out of the park (like in 2015 when I predicted Pearson would lose it’s massive testing contract in Texas) and others I’ve totally flubbed (like in 2013 when I said a non-Apple tablet would lead in educational sales).
Going back over the 30+ predictions I’ve made, I would say that about half of them have now come true. So while I may not be a Carnac the Magnificent, I’d say I’m just a step above Miss Cleo.
Let’s take a look back at this year’s predictions and see how close they came to becoming a reality.
Prediction: A Dual-Language school will open with coding as the second language
Outcome: Nailed it! (sort of)
More and more coding is getting integrating into the curriculum and not just become a thing to do on Fridays or for one hour in December. That said, we are still a long ways away from it truly being thought of as a second language. The state of Texas did pass a law this year that counts coding as a foreign language credit, but only if a student has attempted and been unsuccessful in a traditional foreign language course. (See item 74.12.(b)(5)(B)(iv) buried deep in the TEA rules). However, some schools have now started to embrace coding as a second language and some schools (like Willmore Elementary in California) have started their own “Coding Immersion” programs in elementary.
Prediction: The POTUS will use SnapChat to give the State of the Union
Outcome: Wrong social media platform
I may have been stretching it but if you think back, I wrote this post prior to Trump taking office. Little did I know how he would utilize social media (Twitter specifically) to press forward not only his agenda but also some crazy tweets early in the morning to insult random people in the press. Thinking back at this first year in his presidency, I don’t know how far-fetched it would be for him to tweet out the next #sotu rather than deliver it. And who thought this was a good idea?
Prediction: The Learning “Movement” will take center stage at this year’s iPadpalooza
Outcome: Almost
We did take a stab at some “walk n’ talk” sessions and of course with the APPMazing Race, had people running all over the place. However, with this year being the LAST year of iPadpalooza, I will say that in the future the movement will shift more towards “learning” as we prepare to launch the next iteration of the Learning Festival formerly known as iPadpalooza. (stay tuned to http://theLearningFestival.com for more news coming in 2018)
Prediction: Someone will invent a PokemonGO type app for education
Outcome: Not quite
Much like the PokemonGO movement, this idea had legs early, but hen fizzled out. However, as you may see with a later prediction, this could be a possibility in our future.
Prediction: Data actually gets sexy
Outcome: Maybe not sexy, but mildly attractive?
There have been a slew of companies trying to make headway in this arena around Ed Tech tools lately. The one I mentioned in this piece last year (CatchOn) has grown leaps and bounds and is now receiving almost a Terabyte of data from over 10 Billion data points. All that data is taking us from this exploratory phase of Ed Tech towards a more robust and meaningful approach to how we use learning technology and applications in our school. I’m excited for the future, even if it’s not sexy…yet.
Prediction: Mixed Reality makes it’s way into the mainstream classroom
Outcome: Still a ways off
My excitement for mixing virtual and augmented worlds in our classrooms may still be way off base, but I think the concept still makes some sense. We have static classrooms with dynamic devices, why not have kids explore Mars while walking across the hall or visit Egyptian tombs while drawing hieroglyphics in Art class? The possibilities are endless.
Prediction: VR-Enhanced Movies!
Outcome: It’s here…just not mainstream yet
A couple of months after I made this prediction I was made aware of the documentary “Clouds Over Sidra“. This film was created for the United Nations with the intention of making government officials “feel” what it was like to be a 12-year old girl growing up in a Zaatari Refugee Camp in Jordan. The responses from U.N. Officials were overwhelming, not only from the story but from the immersion into Sidra’s world via Virtual Reality. While this has all sorts of real-world applications, like the documentary, I’m curious to how this could affect education for the better. And more importantly, how long until George Lucas re-releases Star Wars in VR? I can’t wait to be sitting inside the Millennium Falcon next to Han and Chewy.
Prediction: The Classroom becomes “Smart” with Frank
Outcome: “I’m sorry, I didn’t get that.”
In this prediction I joked about a future classroom where much of the “low-hanging fruit” were taken care of by a digital teaching assistant called Frank. Much like Alexa and Google Home, Frank can respond to questions but also control various aspects of the classroom (imagine automated attendance!?). With the Internet of Things (I.O.T.) still in the early stages of consumer use, we likely wouldn’t see this in our classrooms for a few more years. In the meantime, we’ll have to settle for using our fingers to type out important internet searches like “When was the battle of 1812?”
Prediction: I finally publish my first children’s book…and this time I mean it!
Outcome: In progress
For the last couple of years, I’ve ended with this threat…er….prediction. It took me a couple of years of motivation, but I finally found both the story and the medium with which I want to create my first children’s book. (Check out my “7 Strange Things You Didn’t Know You Could Do in Keynote” post for a hint) While I haven’t published the book yet, it’s about half-way finished and should be ready for release in the Spring of 2018. Stay tuned for more details on that and if anyone knows of a good children’s book publisher…send them my way.
So that wraps up another year of bold predictions. I have to say that this past year was my best year so far, but I don’t want to start patting myself on the back quite yet. Now it’s time for me to go into my private bunker and strategize what will make 2018 list. Flying school buses? Self-tying tennis shoes? Tune in to find out.
Until then, see you on the other side.
Bold Predictions Sure to Go Wrong in 2017
Every year I embark on an expedition to either look brilliant or embarrass myself. (Let’s be honest, that’s more like every day in my life) Since 2013 I’ve set out to make a series of predictions, mostly in the Ed Tech world, that are bold. Now, let’s look at the definition of “bold” below before we get started.
While all of these certainly can be applied, I’m going to focus on the final definition and say that some of these predictions stretch the usual limits of conventional thought or action. Last year for example, I predicted that schools would start to implement self-driving buses. As crazy as this may sound, about a month after the prediction, a company in Perth, Australia, began to pilot the self-driving bus in their community. It’s only a matter of time before schools use them right?
You get the idea. Some of these are crazy, others actually just make sense, and some I just wish would happen. So, with that in mind and stressing that this is a “no judgement” zone, let’s proceed:
A Dual-Language school will open with coding as the second language
The immersive dual-language movement has been going on for decades. Why not treat coding as a foreign language? If we really believe that we are preparing kids for a global society, then why not teach them a language many of them will find useful later in life? This does not mean that learning an actual foreign language is any less important, it’s just that we should probably start to value coding and programming on that same level in schools. One sign that this would become a reality would be if a school district actually gave a language credit to those learning to program and code. Talk about taking “hour of code” to the next level!
The POTUS will use SnapChat to give the State of the Union
I’m not even touching the political side of this, but instead, let’s focus on the medium to which our future president will use to communicate the State of the Union with the masses. I get the feeling that Twitter will not be enough for him in the future. I mean, either they’ll have to change their limit of 140 characters (not likely) or he’ll choose a different way of communicating. Enter SnapChat! What a great way to make a bold statement and then have it disappear (sort of) just a few seconds later. Does this sound all that crazy considering where we are today with social media, politics and the recent election?
The Learning “Movement” will take center stage at this year’s iPadpalooza
iPadpalooza 2017: “Learning on the GO”
Every year, iPadpalooza tries to center our attention around a certain theme. Last year we let the “Learning be with us” via a Star Wars-focused theme centered around looking into the future. This year, we take the PokemonGo phenomenon and flip it on its head with our “Learning on the GO” theme. I mean, what good is it to have all of these mobile devices in schools when kids are forced to sit in desks in rows learning the same traditional content the same traditional way? During this year’s event, there will be a whole lotta shakin’ going on with sessions centered around the theme and even a new type of session called a “Walk n’ Talk” where attendees will actually walk around the campus with a presenter sharing an idea. You’ll want to have a good pair of walking shoes before you join us this summer!
Someone will invent a PokemonGO type app for education
Speaking of PokemonGO, it’s only a matter of time before someone invents an app that has some of the same addictive…er…engaging pieces of the widely popular Niantic app. I know there already is a PokemonEdu Facebook group and Twitter hashtag centered around using the characters from the app in an edu setting, but I’m talking something bigger here.
Imagine it. As a teacher, you have access to a platform that allows you to upload little learning nuggets into a platform. Students then actually get up and physically leave the classroom to discover these learning nuggets. Working in teams, they put the nuggets together and get certain badges for completing certain challenges. There could even be time limits, based on the class schedule, so you don’t just have kids wandering the halls all day. It’s like taking the APPmazing Race to a whole other level….hmmmmm….
Data actually gets sexy
I’m always reading stuff about “Big Data” and hearing about some fancy things happening with the IBM Watson project, but in truth, I find data to be extremely boring in its traditional, spreadsheet-focused format. I equate it to going and getting a physical. You don’t want to do it, but you need to if you really want to improve your health. Let’s face it, unless you are an accountant or testing coordinator, you’d rather find something else to do with your time rather than pouring over hundreds of color-coded graphs.
But this year, I think that will change. Now, I’m cheating a little bit here as I’ve been privy to a new program (called CatchOn) that actually puts usage data in a simple, clean, fantasy-football-like format. Gone are the days of me logging into different programs to look up usage statistics and figure out the ROI of a particular program. In this not-so-distant future, we’ll actually be able to see everything that’s being used on a district or school level right on our phone and then adjust accordingly. As someone who delivers professional learning in my district, being able to see this data instantly and beautifully would be powerful in steering what we need to help train teachers on or what we need to get rid of. Now that would be sexy (and save us money)!
Mixed Reality makes it’s way into the mainstream classroom
Virtual Paper Football!
For the past couple of years, there have been several one-off ideas of using some sort of mixed reality in the classroom. Maybe it’s virtual through programs like Google Expeditions or Nearpod VR, or maybe it’s augmented like using the Aurasma app to see hidden things (something I attempted to do with my book series). Either way, mixing realities can provide a powerful way to engage students into certain content areas and up until now, it’s largely been seen as a niche or fun side activity. As witnessed by this recent Kickstarter called the ZapBox, it’s not too hard to see a future where the holograms actually do pop up on the desk so you can interact with them. Now, if only they can invent a way to create virtual versions of those paper footballs that I used to flick across the classroom.
VR-Enhanced Movies!
Piggy backing on the VR concept and expanding into pop culture, I see hollywood grabbing onto the VR the concept and expanding it to the viewer. Now, as someone attending a VR-enhanced movie, you put on the VR goggles, much like you do now with 3D glasses, and are instantly in the middle of the movie. You look around at all the characters around you and actually sit in the middle of the room where the action is taking place. Imagine sitting in a car from Fast and Furious 15 as it launches out of a plane and lands on a boat! Or imagine sitting in the living room during Halloween Part 13 and instead of yelling at the screen for the actor to turn around, you can actually turn around as the killer approaches? Doing it in a movie theater gives everyone the same shared experience and you could even make movies more “Choose your own adventure-like” where half the audience goes down one hallway and the rest go down the other. Sound crazy or genius? I’m not sure where I fall on this yet, but hope it happens.
The Classroom becomes “Smart” with Frank
With devices like Google Home and Amazon’s Alexa really taking off in the consumer market, it doesn’t seem that far-fetched that we would soon see an educational version of these tools. I think it should be called something like “Frank”. Frank would be like a fact-checking teacher’s assistant that all the students could also use. “Frank, when was the battle of 1812?” or “What is Bohr’s law?” or maybe “What is my teacher’s favorite treat?” All of these could be useful in saving time in the classroom and help dive into even deeper learning and higher Bloom’s level thinking. However, I imagine it might also come with a lot of new classroom management issues. But hey, for every challenge comes an opportunity, right Frank?
I finally publish my first children’s book…and this time I mean it!
Yes, I know this was on last year’s predictions, but I sort of had that whole Mobile Learning Mindset book series to finish first. With that series finally complete, I’m ready to embark on a new journey. I’ve got a lot of good ideas for a tech-centered children’s book that will definitely be some sort of mixed reality book too. It might even come with it’s own pair of VR goggles attached on the back. Like a virtual pop-up book of sorts. Now, if only I can find a publisher willing to take a risk….
There you have it. A few bold and bolder predictions that may happen this year. What do you think? What do you predict? Add your comments below and maybe together, we can make the future a better place for learning too!
Happy New Year!
Review of 2016 Bold Predictions
Photo credit – goo.gl/YPq23i
Every year I since 2013, I like to take a few risks and attempt to predict which new trends will catch on in the world of education and ed tech. Some years I’ll get it right, some I’ll get wrong. Among my best predictions were:
2015 – Pearson will lose its massive testing contract in Texas. (100% accurate prediction)
2015 – Drones will make their way into education (mostly true and happening now)
2015 – I will finally publish a book. (took until 2016, but it happened)
2014 – The “21st Century Skills” will be renamed something more appropriate and clever – (sort of happening now with “Future Ready” skills)
Of course, they ain’t all winners folks. Some of my more famous failed predictions were:
2013 – A non-Apple tablet will rule them all (Chromebooks now surpassed iPads in sales in schools, but they aren’t technically a “tablet”)
2015 – A human battery level app will be invented (not yet….)
All in all, I feel like my track record is about 50/50 on these. With that said, let’s see how I did on this past year’s bold predictions sure to be wrong:
Prediction – A school will try a self-driving bus
Outcome – not yet
I know this prediction seems completely unfeasible, but when you think about the practicality of it, should they get the safety part down, I think this will happen in the next 5-10 years. In fact, this year in Helsinki they actually have the world’s first self-driving bus, so it’s only a matter of time until education catches on.
Prediction – MYOT (“Make Your Own Textbook”) Becomes a Reality
Outcome – trending in the right direction
This is actually getting closer and closer to being a reality. With colleges like Rice’s Openstax and MIT’s Open Courseware now entering the fray, I think K-12 will continue to travel down this path sooner rather than later.
Prediction – A “Teen Social Media Prediction” app will be invented
Outcome – Wrong
The truth is, even if there was an app that could predict what kids were doing online it wouldn’t matter. As I wrote in this post (Everything is Social Media) last spring, technically, everything that kids do online can be social. From making comments on Amazon to chatting with friends on XBox, social media is here to stay and it doesn’t really matter if we can predict the next big platform or not.
Prediction – In a district far, far away….someone will develop Star Wars school.
Outcome – NO
Wishful thinking on my part. Learn we must. Create we will.
Prediction – Speaking of Star Wars…the Learning will awaken at iPadpalooza this summer
Outcome – True
We had one of our most engaging iPadpaloozas ever this past summer. With the theme of “May the Learning be with You”, the event featured lightsabers, stormtroopers (in the bathroom even) and a bantha’s worth of high quality speakers and sessions. Can’t wait until 2017! Here’s a highlight video of this year’s event:
Prediction – The Election Will Be Televised…via Periscope
Outcome – Mostly True
While I was right about the fact that social media would play a large role in the election, I was wrong about the tool. Periscope and Facebook Live did play a role in the messages online, but in the end, it was the president-elect’s use of twitter to sway the masses that ended up tipping the tide in his favor. Whether you like him or not, in an age where “who ever says it first must be right”, the reality TV star played that card masterfully to craft his message and sway people into his camp. Now comes the hard part for him….actually being the president.
Prediction – The “Undead” learning movement will happen!
Outcome – Still hopeful
As much as I would have loved a protest of broken #2 pencils being tweeted, snapped, and instagrammed out, this movement never quite took off. That said, more and more schools (like these in San Diego) are seeing the damage of too much standardized testing and thus reducing it from their daily practices.
Prediction – A School will go 1:1 cardboard
Outcome – Almost a reality
With the launch of Google Expeditions spreading like wild fire and the addition of Nearpod’s VR box, we are seeing more and more of these cardboard modeled phone-based VR goggles. Zapbox even makes a headset that does mixed reality. I’m a sucker for cool kickerstarters!
Prediction – I’ll Write a Children’s Book
Outcome – I still have a couple of weeks left
I’m in the middle of finishing my 6th book in the 6-book Mobile Learning Mindset series, so my time is very short here. That said, I have some early leads and a couple of ideas that might help me self-publish my first children’s book in 2017. Here’s hoping!
So there you have it. Some winners. Some losers. Some that remain to be seen. Now comes the hard chore of researching trends from 2016 and attempting to gather them into some sort of coherent list for 2017. Come back in January to see what crazy ideas come to fruition then and place your bets on which I’ll get right or…more than likely….wrong.
Reviewing my 2015 “Bold” Predictions for Ed Tech
Making predictions can be a messy game. I mean not all of us can have a Miss Cleo in our back pocket for getting things right. Part of why I do these predictions is to get me to think about the future direction of educational technology, including some likely absurd ideas. The other part is what I’m doing right now; reflecting on the year that has been and how many of these actually came true. In looking at 2014’s review, I hit on a few, missed on a few (giving up Google for lent? C’mon!) and sort of in between on others. In January of this year, I made a set of ten more predictions that I thought were sure to go wrong in 2015 (remember, “bold” is in the title). Now for the moment of truth, let’s see how I did.
1. Classrooms will become automated
Outcome: Not yet
I’ve seen more sessions at conferences around the idea of automated or “smart” classrooms, but the technology is still a far ways off. I think as beacon technology becomes more ubiquitous and more and more devices enter schools, this one will become a reality. I do think with the recent debates over student privacy, we will have to go through some legal loopholes before a truly automated classroom becomes a reality.
2. Pearson will lose its testing contract in Texas
Outcome: BINGO!
I am actually still in a state of shock that Texas would go a different direction, but with the exception of a few hold over assessments, we essentially dropped our contract with Pearson. While I’m still not sure that replacement system ETS is much better, one thing is for certain, those people looking for jobs scoring 4th grade writing tests on Craigslist are surely going to be disappointed.
3. Wearables will take over the world…and then regress
Outcome: Getting warmer
Lighting up the world (and my shirt) with sound!
I made some jokes about the soon-to-be-formed P.A.W. (“People Against Wearables”) but in reality wearables came on like gang-busters in 2015, especially early in the year. After the Apple Watch hit the market, it became commonplace to see people checking their wrists for cute emoji-based text messages. While I heard some rumors of a school in Australia going 1:1 with Apple Watches (for health data research), I think the fervor over wearables, coupled with the afore mentioned data privacy has slowed down the wearable market. It still didn’t stop me from wearing this cool Matrix-like light up shirt at iPadpaloozaSouthTx this past summer!
4. A human battery level app will be invented
Outcome: Uh…no
So we haven’t entered cyborg-level yet, but I can tell you this partially came true this week when my dad went in to replace the battery on his heart defibrillator. That’s close right?
5. This year’s iPadpalooza APPmazing Race will bend the mind.
Outcome: Not quite, but it was a blast!
We ramped up the challenges to over 30 in the 3 days of iPadpalooza and dozens of teams rose to the challenge. We had people doing “jumper” pics into swimming pools, putting bunny ears on Felix Jacomino, and tearing up the stage at lunch-time karaoke. The winning team each walked away with their own Apple Watch! All of this sets up for a crazy 2016 race as we continue to raise the bar and up the ante. Check out the highlight video here and be sure to register now as the early bird rates are going on through the holidays!
6. 3D Printers will become common classroom (& household) items
Outcome: Still a ways off
We did see the price of 3D printers continue to drop and even got introduced to these snazzy $99 3D doodler pens, they are not quite common place yet. I do think in several years we will be at a place where we can truly “download” the parts we need to fix something, but for now I’ll just patiently wait for hours as this machine prints out a mini-bust of my own head.
7. Someone will complete the 21 things every 21st century educator should do
Outcome: Not yet
This blog post made the rounds for the past year and half as a list of things every teachers should try to do in their classroom. Many tried it, but I’ve yet to find one person who completed all of them. Rather than rest on my laurels, I decided to up the game and create this “36 Weeks of Innovation” post for teachers to try one thing in their classroom every week. As of this writing, I know of many that have done some, but none that have done them all.
8. Drones will make their way into education
Outcome: True
This was sort of a joke when I wrote it last January, but it is actually now becoming a reality. Last week we completed our national “Hour of code” and I saw many posts on social media about kids programming and coding their own drones. In fact, amazingly enough, I may have predicted what iPadpalooza Keynote Adam Bellow would do this year during his presentation. During the middle of his keynote, he use the Tickle App to successfully program and fly a drone out into the crowd and then watch it turn around and come back. Check out his full keynote (post on YouTube for the first time today!) below and watch the magic happen:
9. Someone will complete the Billy Madison #Student4aDay Challenge….maybe me?
Outcome: Not even close
I had grand plans this past year to follow up my #Student4aDay challenge in 2014 with a gauntlet of going through every grade level as a student. While I’m not dismissing this one for myself, I did see more and more people trying the #Student4aDay challenge in their own schools. I think it’s one of the best ways to really experience what kids go through on a daily basis as well as seeing how administrative decisions (like 1:1 technology) impact the classroom.
10. Carl Hooker will FINALLY publish a book
Outcome: TRUE! (in 2016)
This was more of a way to blackmail myself then anything, but after searching for a publishing house in early 2015, ISTE Publishing came knocking on my virtual door. I am excited to announce that I will be creating a 6-book series titled “Mobile Learning Mindset” in 2016 & 2017. Each book will focus on a different area of the school environment. The first two books (focusing on district and campus leadership) will hit shelves in early March of 2016. The last four books will dive into mobile learning in the classroom, professional learning, technical support and the role of parents and community during a mobile learning initiative. While I’m extremely honored and blessed to be a published author, I can tell you that it is NOTHING like blog writing. I’m hopeful that these books will go a long way in helping schools on their own mobile learning journey and can’t wait to see them in print (both real print and virtual).
And that puts a bow on 2015. All in all, I was surprised by some of the results and not so much about others. I’m now going to start brainstorming for 2016 and will publish those after the New Year. What did you think about these predictions? What predictions do you have for 2016? Comment below, and if I use it in my next post (as a “guest prediction”) I’ll give you full credit!
Bold Predictions Sure to Go Wrong in 2015
For the past three years I’ve made an attempt at predicting what the future might hold for the Educational world, usually around the area of technology. The truth is, anyone can predict fairly obvious things (like Google will be the number 1 search engine), so what I attempt to do here is make some daring predictions that may or may not come true (like Alta Vista will make a comeback! Ok…maybe not that daring). Here’s a look at my 2013 and 2014 predictions which I also review every year to see how I did. Some of my predictions that have gone right include my 2013 predictions that a non-Apple devices will rise up to challenge iPads in education (see Chromebooks) and my 2014 that a new form of social media will crop up with teens (see YikYak or Whisper).
And so, I present to you, my 2015 bold predictions that are sure to go wrong this year.
Classrooms will become automated
I’m not talking about the learning in the classrooms becoming automated, this is more about the low-hanging fruit in our schools. Things like attendance, daily quizzes, etc can be done so much more efficiently with technology however they still require an element of human interaction (and teacher time). I can see a future where a student walks into a classroom and the room “knows” he/she is there, thus eliminating the need for attendance (and saving hundreds of instructional minutes a year). While this may seem big brother-ish and far fetched, I’m working with a company called Signal 360 that works on something called proximity marketing using uBeacon technology. It wouldn’t be that far-fetched to see this one come true.
Pearson will lose its testing contract in Texas
With over 50% of the UK-based company’s income coming from the state of Texas and it’s500 million dollar contract, the people at Pearson could be sweating it this year as their contract comes up for renewal in the Lone Star state. It’s no secret that Pearson is now under investigation with the FBI for it’s back-room dealing done during the L.A. iPad fiasco. Add to that a recent turbulent legislative session around standardized testing (finally!) and you start to see that Pearson could be in for a surprise this year when the contract comes up for renewal. Unfortunately (or fortunately if you are a Pearson-supporter) there are not really any other companies out there that can swoop in and grab that contract, making this prediction probably more asinine than bold. But here’s hoping….
Wearables will take over the world…and then regress
Between the Apple Watch (debuting in the next couple of months) and this gadget known as the “Ring” unveiled today at CES 2015, we’ve become smitten with wearable technology and the internet of things. I predict we’ll reach critical mass by mid-July, at which point someone will have vision problems from their Google Glasses (ala Naven Johnson’s OptiGrab invention) or get in a car accident trying to get driving directions from their watch thus resulting in the creation of the “People Against Wearables” (P.A.W.) activist group.
A human battery level app will be invented
Realizing this is counter to the above prediction, wouldn’t it be great if you could see how much energy you had left by checking an app? (or better yet a projection on your arm via something like this) “Sorry Bob, I’d like to work on that project with you but I’m only at 14% and I need to recharge.” I’m hoping with all the wearable tech out there and the power of the internet, there will soon be a way to check this. Think about how much more productive you could be if you knew this data? Or better yet, what about if we knew this data about our students? The next step would be to invent a “Student Engagement Level” app. Now that would be something.
This year’s iPadpalooza APPmazing Race will bend the mind
Last year we premiered the APPmazing Race at our annual global event. This year, we’re stepping it up a notch as teams will compete on a series of challenges throughout the 3-day learning festival. At least one of the challenges we are working with in R&D is going to be pretty mind-stretching for teams participating. I can’t wait to see what they come up with! (come join the spectacle this year by registering here)
3D Printers will become common classroom (& household) items
Again, thinking bold here, but with the rapid price drop from $10,000 to closer to the $1000 range for a 3D printer, it wouldn’t be far-fetched to think we could see these in everyone’s classroom (and house) at some point in the near future. Did you break that part on your washing machine or pencil sharpener? Just download the instructions and print the replacement part!
Someone will complete the 21 things every 21st century educator should do
Based on my blog post from the fall on this subject, I’ve heard a few people try and do some of the items on the list. It’s not meant to be a challenge, it’s more to inspire thinking and ways to integrate everyday technology that kids use into learning, however it would be cool if someone actually did all the items on the list (and then blogged about it.) I’m working on a book version of this post too with Sean Junkins (see final prediction), so hopefully this will continue to grow and it would great to have an example of someone actually doing this to credit in the book.
Drones will make their way into education
Forget all this chatter about Amazon and military use of drones, when will they make their way into education? I’ve seen these given away at educational technology conferences, but I’ve yet to see any actual good application of drones in terms of learning. I can see science really getting a boost from having access to this technology right away. Imagine the old “egg drop” experiment recorded from an aerial view of a drone? Or how about athletics and band using a different view of their formations?
Someone will complete the Billy Madison #Student4aday Challenge…maybe me?
In December I took the #student4aday challenge and became a 10th grader for day. It was enlightening in many ways but over the winter break I started to reflect on how well do we really know our students in all grades K-12? A single day as a 10th grader is a start, but I’m thinking we need to dig deeper and expand the grade-levels of the challenge. I would love for someone to complete what I’m calling “The Billy Madison #student4aday Challenge” based on the cult-classic movie staring Adam Sandler. In the movie, Billy has to go through all grade levels from K-12 to get his diploma. We should do the same thing! Rather than being passive about this, I’m going to challenge myself to be a student in every grade level at some point in the next year and challenge other administrators to do the same. As the principal in the movie states, “Mr. Madison, that was be one of the most insanely idiotic things I’ve ever heard…” although my last prediction may be even more insane.
Carl Hooker will FINALLY publish a book
This has been on my radar for the past couple of years. As I hear more and more people tell me “you should write a book!” I’m starting to believe it (I know…that’s a scary thought). Even if my mom is the only one who buys it, I’m still hoping to publish something this year. I’ve got collaborations in the works on a couple of books and I’m working on a couple of my own ideas too…just need to find the time.
Some of these predictions I have direct control over and others I’ll be watching from a far (or on twitter) to see if they happen. At any rate, I get the feeling that 2015 will be another progressive year of change in the classroom when it comes to technology. And while some of these predictions may not come to fruition, I’m just happy to be a part of this change.
Happy new year everyone!
Reviewing my 2014 “Bold” Predictions for Ed Tech
This is the second year in a row I’ve made some predictions about the upcoming calendar year. (Here are my 2013 prediction reviews) I do this for a couple of reasons. One is to stimulate my own thinking on what’s possible in education with technology. The other reason is to force myself to try something new in the upcoming year. These predictions are in fact “bold” and somewhat unlikely, but with the pace of change in technology you never know what is possible. Let’s take a look and see how my predictions turned out.
1. MOOCs rebound
Outcome – A little
Open to the world in 2015!
In the end of 2013, there was a lot of fervor around the quality of learning in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) and the amount of students that actually complete the course. I actually took a MOOC (on the Walking Dead of course) last year just to see what it was like. Like many of my 5000+ classmates, I didn’t finish the course. That said, I don’t hear quite as much fuss about these as I did a year ago so there seems to be a little bit of leveling in the Ed Tech community about these courses. This next year, I’m going to step it up and actually offer my own MOOC on Digital Parenting. (link here if you’d like to sign-up for free) I have some predictions for how that will go, but we’ll save that for my 2015 prediction post.
2. Textbooks become obsolete –
Outcome – Not yet
This one was really trying (and hoping) to step out there and change the way we think about textbooks in schools. The internet is our new textbook, but that is going to take time to change that traditional mindset in schools. This year we’ll be working with our teachers to build their own “textbook” and I’m hoping that’s the tipping point to ridding ourselves of the overpriced “Big 3” textbook providers out there.
YikYak reared it’s ugly head
3. A new social media platform will take off with teens –
Outcome – Yes….unfortunately
This prediction is not really that bold in retrospect. Kids have been social media platform hoping for the better part of 3 years now thanks to us “old people” getting on Facebook. Last year it was SnapChat and Instagram. This year it was YikYak and Whisper. Next year? Who knows. We’ve had a personal experience with YikYak here in our district this year and I’m hopeful that wherever they go next, it will at least be for a positive experience.
4. Wearable tech makes its way into the classroom –
Outcome – On track
Google Glass was supposed to be a harbinger of things to come in technology (and education). However, I still haven’t see the tipping point with this one. The fine folks over at Edudemic are doing their part releasing this “Teacher’s Guide to Google Glass in the Classroom” and here’s a handy infographic from TeachThought, but for the most part, it’s still too expensive to be used in everyday classrooms. With the release of the Apple Watch in 2015, the wearable tech space just got a little more crowded. That said, I’d be shocked to see a 1:1 Apple Watch school, though I’m sure it will happen. (imagine typing up your papers on that!)
5. Augmented Reality becomes reality
Outcome – True
I think with expansion of uses of Augmented Reality in learning (from NASA’s Mars Rover app to teacher fave Aurasma), this is an area of significant growth in education. And why not? With augmented reality you could take those boring textbook that has yet left the classroom and put a layer of augmented reality on top of it to make it interactive!
Scaring the crowd at SXSW
6. My SXSW presentation on “Surviving the Digital Zombie Apocalypse” will make someone sick
Outcome – False, but…
Someone did almost shoot me in the streets of Austin. Note to self: Next time you dress up like a zombie, make sure you aren’t in an open-carry state like Texas.
7. The classroom desk will truly die –
Outcome – Not yet
After being a #Student4aDay a few weeks ago, I really think we need to rethink what we are doing to students. I know what adults will say – “I sat in those desks when I went to school, so why can’t they?”. The truth of the matter is, these things are just a notch above being a torture device. It really makes you think…where are the most comfortable chairs in your district? Who do they belong to? I’m hopeful this will change in my lifetime, or at least before my kids hit middle school.
8. My “Giving Up Google” for lent experiment will be the stuff of legends
Outcome – WRONG
Unlike my giving up email for lent experiment in 2013, I only lasted 3 days without a search engine of any type. I ended up asking people for help on social media or calling people whenever I had a question I couldn’t find the answer too. (essentially outsourcing my Google search) Realizing I couldn’t lean on my friends and colleagues for 40 days (and have them remain friends and colleagues) I gave it up after the third day.
So that wraps up 2014. Some interesting outcomes there and I already have a few in mind for 2015. What are some things you predict for the next year? Comment below and if I use it I’ll give you full credit!
