A new year AND a new decade. WOW. That went by pretty fast. It feels like just last year I was in the classroom trying to figure out why the Reader Rabbit CDs weren’t working on my Compaq computer. A lot has changed in the past decade and a lot WILL change in the next one. It’s hard to believe that I’ve done these predictive posts every year now since 2013.
Last year, one prediction that I totally missed was that I would leave my district administration job after 21 years in schools to take on the role of full-time consulting and speaking. While I didn’t predict that, I can say that so far I’ve loved working with schools and conferences all over the world to collaborate on thoughts and ideas for improving education. When it comes to my predictions over the last 7 years, my success rate has been around 50% which is much better than any baseball player or professional gambler.
That said, these predictions are meant to be taken with a grain of salt. They are meant to challenge both your thinking and mine. Some of them may seem like a future Black Mirror episode while others are just silly, but I’m trying to be BOLD so cut me some slack. So buckle up for 2020!
Social Media gets a mute button
With the 2020 election coming up at the end of the year, you know social media will be rabid with people from both sides of the aisle as well as a LARGE amount of trolls from Russia. While some companies like Facebook have tinkered with a snooze button, I think this is the year that an app comes out that takes all of your social media, text messages, emails, smoke signals, etc. and mutes them all for a period of time. This would be much simpler then having to delete all of your accounts or even mess with notification settings (although those are good skills to teach students).
A school goes 1:1….exercise bikes
Last week I caught wind of a tweet by @MrHamiltonPE (which as since been deleted) where they started a “READ and RIDE” program at their school designed to get some motion into their day. Almost immediately twitter tore it apart claiming it had to have been an article from the Onion or at best it was a misinterpretation of “active learners”. Part of the dangers of thinking differently is that you risk ridicule, but I don’t think the concept is completely out of realm of possibility. Personally, part of my daily routine is to now spend an hour on a stationary bike doing research or reading a book. Movement is a good thing when it comes to increasing oxygen levels in the brain and awaking the receptors for learning. So while this strategy might not be the right fit, there is something to adding more movement to the classroom. So why not go 1:1 with exercise bikes? Remember when we used to spend thousands of dollars on eClickers?
With gamification and Orange Theories popping up everywhere, it might only be a time before a tool like CyclePath becomes widespread. It connects to games that you play on a mobile device so if you want to run in the game, you have to actually cycle faster. Not a terrible idea…
The Ed Poet’s Society goes Global
Back in 2017, following Lisa Johnson’s inspiration, we began an Ed Tech Poetry Slam (click here to watch the ISTE 2018 version). What started as a fun after-conference event idea has grown substantially since then, mostly due to the amazing educators who are a part of the Ed Poet’s Society. Brett Salakas (@mrsalakas) has taken this idea to Australia and really started to run with it, hosting his own poetry slam events down under. This year, he and I have a couple of tricks up our sleeves, but our hope is that this becomes less a prediction and more of a self-fulfilling prophecy as we try to make Ed Poet’s a global phenomenon. Stay tuned!
The 2020 Election will be heavily influenced by TikTok
As I mentioned in my first post, social media will play a huge role in the 2020 election. This particular prediction may have seemed crazy a few years ago, but when you think about how the last few years have gone with our leaders and their use of social media, is this really out of the realm of possibilities? I think with TikTok announcing tighter security measures and guidelines last week, they are setting up to potentially be the go to source for where the masses get their information. While the company wants to remain politics free, this is social media…they should know by now that they have no control over that. This year, the election will be televised! (in little 10-15 second cute, loopy videos)
Elon Musk takes a crack at “disrupting” education
The mogul has taken on space travel with SpaceX and extremely strange concept electronic cybertruck recently. He is known for taking on concepts and ideas that seem to be rooted in traditionalism and then re-imaging them. So why not education? It’s 2020 and we are still hearing terms about how education needs to take a step into the 21st century. Flexible furniture and mobile devices aren’t enough, we need significant changes in mindset and vision. Time for Mr. Musk to take a crack at disrupting education. Let’s just hope it turns out better than his truck windows.
The Ambient Classroom becomes a concept
We’ve heard a lot about artificial intelligence and the use of digital assistants like Google Home and Amazon’s Alexa to help us through our day at home. Despite some security concerns, some schools have even started to implement programs with the consumer listening device in classrooms. This isn’t a new thing as you can find articles from the past couple of years about using inexpensive Echo Dots in the classroom. “Ambient Intelligence” is the next level in artificial intelligence and I predict (assuming security concerns are addressed), that it could have a HUGE impact in the classroom. Imagine a classroom environment that adjusts based on the mood, lesson, time of day, activity, etc? It is technology that actually reacts to the users in the room. How’s that for personalized learning?
“WiFi for All” finally happens
In 2013, President Barack Obama announced his ConnectEd initiative with the goal of getting internet access to underserved schools all over the country. While this has only been mildly successful, there are still many without access. With the rapid push towards 5G and the launch of satellite internet in the past year, there should be a point in the near future where students shouldn’t have to go to Starbucks for free WiFi. The LEO (Low Earth Orbit) satellites launched by Amazon and Tesla claim to offer robust internet access to even the most rural communities. Not only that, but with more internet options (like in my neighborhood, where I only have one), that would mean competitive pricing for current internet services. So, while it might not be free yet, I think we are closer to being a completely internet-saturated country, which will be important for all the TikTok videos we’ll be watching this year.
The micro-projector movement takes hold
Remember back in the day when schools would spend over $5000 to install an interactive whiteboard to be mounted on the wall? It was one of ed tech’s early attempts at “modernizing” the classroom, but in reality, it only perpetuated the ‘sage on the stage’ approach to learning. Now many districts are shifting to large, mobile interactive displays. While I like that these are becoming more mobile, they are not very cost-effective for the district trying to keep their budget afloat. One of the districts I consult with was trying to come up with an idea for making presenting information more mobile but at a lower price than those large mobile displays. We decided to try a mobile micro-projector. For around $250, they purchased a handful of these Nebula Capsule and almost immediately saw benefits to both teacher and students in having an alternate way to display information. With built-in airplay and an HDMI port, any device can connect and display information on a flat surface. The screen instantly adjusts and bezels based on what it is projecting on. (hint – the lighter the color of the surface the better) It was amazing to see how just having one other projector made the classroom much more dynamic and less “front of the room” focused.
I will publish three VERY different books this year
I’ve been predicting that I will publish a children’s book for the last 3 years and failed on that prediction every year, but this year, I’m raising the bar.
This year I will publish 3 books in three different genres.
This prediction could be more about me blackmailing, but I already have the early ground work laid to make this happen. I’m hopeful I can find a willing publisher out there to take a risk with me, but if not, maybe I’ll take the ultimate risk and self-publish!
There you have it folks. My latest bold predictions for tech and it’s impact on education in 2020. One thing I didn’t list is less of a prediction and more of a hope. As I travel around in my new role, I hope that I get the opportunity to meet and engage in conversation with more fellow educators and colleagues. Despite all the excitement and rapid changes in technology, I still find that having good discussions with thoughtful educators is the biggest thrill for me.
I wish you all an innovative and safe 2020 and hope to see you at an event in your neighborhood this year!
Tim Ferriss, the renowned and often maligned podcaster and author, doesn’t make resolutions for the new year. Instead, he likes to reflect on the year that has been and look at what events in his life brings him joy and what events do not. Using that data, he then makes sure to schedule more of what brings him joy in the year to come. Not all of us have that freedom, but I do like the intent behind his reasoning in doing so.
For me, I too don’t make resolutions, I make predictions. Predictions that are not always that likely to come true, but may not be that far-fetched when it comes to technology and our classrooms. Consumerism and pop-culture certainly play a huge role in the creation of this list. For instance, the Netflix series Black Mirror and the book Ready Player One definitely had some influence on this year’s list as both propose alternate, but possible futures.
As Tim does, it’s always good to go back and reflect before moving forward. If you would like to go back and look at the previous 5 years worth of predictions, look here. While I try and stick to education and technology’s influence on learning, I do sometimes stray to the world of pop-culture, politics, and everyday life.
And with that, I present this year’s bold predictions sure to go wrong in 2018:
AR will help us “see” students’ level of engagement
A few years back, the Melon Band was looking for funding on Kickstarter and I wondered what the possibilities would be for kids in school. The premise- you can actually see what your focus looks like via an app on your smartphone. Now extrapolate that technology out a few years and add a level of augmented reality. I predict there will be a future where the teacher can hold up their phone or a tablet and instantly see what the level of student engagement is in their class. I bet with some upgrades, you could even change your voice to the Charlie Brown teacher voice, “Wah wah wah wahhhhh” and watch their engagement tank.
Digital badging will replace college degrees
In a future world where you need to be adaptable in an unpredictable work force, being badged as an expert in several different areas could be highly marketable. Rather than spending 4 years working on one field of study, why not spend a few weeks or months getting credentialed as an HTML5 coder or a social media guru? The other benefit (besides saving more than a trillion dollars in student loan debt), would be that current employees could use badging to continue to grow, learn and improve on their craft as well as other topics they are passionate about. The flexibility and targeted focus of micro-credentials could help a company improve in areas where they have weaknesses not by hiring more people, but by improving their existing work force.
A school will fully implement AI to help with learning disabilities
Sugata Mitra had the idea of putting a “computer in the wall” to help kids teach themselves through student agency back in 2005. While this concept showed that kids with proper motivation can learn just about anything, there were still some holes to fill. With artificial intelligence and enough data points, we could get to a future where schools and classrooms can immediately learn a student’s behaviors and preferences that help them learn. The role of the teacher would be more of a project manager and instructional designer for each student in their class as they use the data to create experiences that help their students expand their future ready skills both as an individual and as a member of team.
“4D” technology will help kids truly experience history
My friend and colleague Tim Yenca (@mryenca) just returned from a trip to Disney World and recounted his experience with the Pandora ride there. The ride involves the use of virtual reality goggles and physical experiences (such as the feel of the beast you are riding actually breathing on your legs) to immerse the player into the world. With improving VR technologies and high-end resolution, it’s only a matter of time before that experience is combined with some of haptic suit (via Ready Player One) to have your students truly experience an event in history. Imagine, being in the theater when President Lincoln was assassinated? Or being on the ground when the troops stormed the beaches at Normandy? That’s the kind of experience that you can’t get from reading a textbook.
A Presidential pardon will happen via Twitter
Really? Is this that hard to envision in today’s political climate?
This year #EdTechPoetrySlam becomes a thing
Shout out to Lisa Johnson (@techchef4u) for getting this idea started at the last iPadpalooza when we took 12 speakers from around the country and threw them on stage for 3 minutes without anything (no props!) except their words and microphone. I’ll admit this isn’t that bold of a prediction as I know there will be a version of this at Tech & Learning Live in Chicago (May 11) and also a soon-to-be announced exclusive after hours event during this year’s ISTE. Stay tuned for more details on that….
A ride-sharing app for parents will be invented
I have to give credit for this to my own local group of amazing community parents who brought up the need for this at a recent tech talk. Our students have tons of after school activities that they attend. You see a parent pick up their own kid to take them to the same place you are going with your kid after school. Rather than having parents play chauffeur to their kids and never have time to run other errands, why not coordinate all of that in an Uber-meets-NextDoor type app? This app would allow parents in a community to coordinate driving kids to similar activities thus cutting back on traffic and helping connect people with similar interests. Of course, the old fashioned way to do this would be just to go talk to another parent about this, but who does that these days?
Oprah will run for President
Just making sure you were still paying attention, but she did deliver a powerful Golden Globes speech!
Drones in education could be a thing
While the rules and regulations around drones seem to be ever-changing and all over the map, the role of these devices in our future is certainly going to be disruptive. Knowing that these devices will play a part, what do we need to teach kids about it? How can we use this technology to give us a different view on learning? This is more than a lesson on how to build a drone for sure. The sky’s the limit….(get it?)
“The Learning Festival” aka LearnFest launches with some unexpected twists
This past year was the last of our iPadpalooza event. The rebranding of this event into “LearnFest” has been a long time coming and this year will only feature a smaller prototype version of the event (LearnFest launches to the public in June of 2019). That said, there are a couple of ideas we’ll be trying that I can promise you have NEVER been done at a conference or learning event. Keep alert for special invites to this year’s event by following the @TheLearnFest twitter account or this blog.
My new children’s book gets a publisher and is actually published!
This is less a prediction and more of a call for help. Maybe I should launch it on Kickstarter….
A Boba Fett movie will be announced
Just making sure you read until the end. It’s been rumored but this is the year it becomes official! 🙂
Happy 2018 everybody!
Tags: 2018, AI, app, AR, black mirror, bold predictions, carl hooker, digital badging, drones, ed tech, education, engagement, ISTE, learnfest, learning, learning festival, mrhooker, parents, poetry slam, predictions, ready player one, technology, vr
We recently celebrated the 10th anniversary of the launch of the iPhone. That means the iPhone has been in production two years longer than my oldest child. Every student in elementary school today cannot fathom a world where smartphones don’t exist. I LOVE this Douglas Adams about technology in our lives:
With the invent of the smartphone being so new to those of us over 35 yet part of the natural way of things for those under the age of 10, you can see how this can become a major topic of contention. One of the major discussions amongst parents in my community and others is when is the right time to give a child their first phone. This is an ongoing debate in the Hooker household as well. While my kids have access to devices like iPads (both at home and at school) there are times where it might be helpful for them to have access to a phone.
Here’s one example that was shared with me recently:
When we were kids and we went to a friend’s house, we had to call our parents to let them know we had arrived. The only problem with that solution today is that many households are getting rid of landlines which makes it hard to communicate with your child when they aren’t within your grasp.
Now, some could argue that may seem like more of a convenience then anything and to just get your kid a “dumb phone” for that purpose. While we’re still on the fence about when to give our oldest her first phone, here are a list of reasons why it might make sense to do it sooner rather than later.
Becoming a Good Digital Citizen
What does it mean to be a good citizen much less a digital one? Much of this practice happens at home at an EARLY age when we teach our kids how to be respectful, say “please” and “thank you” and not to chew with their mouth open. While there is much more to being a good citizen than just that, we do start building those traits as soon as our kids can speak for the most part. Enter in the smartphone and the world online.
While many of the rules of modern society apply to an online environment, some do not. The ability to be “anonymous” (I put it in air-quotes because no one is truly anonymous online) on the internet can bring out the worst in some people. Just look at the comment section of any online discussion or better yet, listen to the story of Lizzie Velasquez (video below), who’s father I used to work with. Lizzie was looking at YouTube one day when she came across a video that was titled “The World’s Ugliest Woman” and was shocked to find footage of herself on the video. While this is an extreme example of what the online world can do to people, her reaction and subsequent inspirational talks turned what could have been life-devastating to life-defining.
The sooner we start to work with our kids on appropriate online behavior the better. When we thrust them into this world in the middle of their teen years, many bad habits have already started to form. Throw in the fact that they have “teenage” brain and don’t believe a thing their parents try to teach them, and you start to see that it might be more beneficial to have those conversations about online behavior at an earlier age.
Handling a Cyberbully or Troll
Lizzie’s example from above was just one of countless examples of cyberbullies or trolls that you can find on the web. Bullying has been around long before the days of Eddie Haskell on Leave it to Beaver. With social media and instant communication, it is now easier to torment or harass someone. Every year it seems, there are stories out there about teens committing suicide due to being the target of a cyberbully. Your first reaction as a parent is to protect your kids and prohibit them from entering this online world. I know that’s mine. You figure, if they aren’t online, they won’t have to deal with a cyberbully.
These stories are tragic and shouldn’t be ignored, but we also shouldn’t completely put our kids in a cyber-bubble. The numbers of teens that have experienced or witnessed some form of cyberbullying is nearly 90%. However, bullying behavior, whether online or face-to-face begins as early as Kindergarten. As kids get older, they tend to be more reluctant to report bullying to parents. While this may not seem like the best reason to give your 10-year old a phone, one thing is for sure, the sooner they learn how to handle this sort of online behavior with your support, the better.
Regardless of when you give them a phone, you need to be actively involved in your kid’s online and daily life. That means understanding the social media sites they frequent. While we may not understand the fascination with the SnapChat dog-face filter, we should look for opportunities to have our kids teach us the ins and outs of a platform while we play the role of student. Not only will this open up lines of communication, but it will also give you an opportunity to relay some life wisdom to your child and discuss scenarios of what to do when a troll or cyberbully attacks.
Again, just like with citizenship, when our kids are in their primary grades they is a strong likelihood they will witness, become a victim, or participate in some form of bullying. We need to be involved and on the look out for signs like depression, anxiety, anger or fear. Unlike face to face situations, we have a multitude of digital tools to help us monitor and track when a cyberbullying situation may be taking place. I like the advice given in this article which includes setting up a Google Alert for your child’s name. The sooner we can have these hard conversations and problem-solve the solutions the better.
This past year, I started having social media and cyber safety talks with 4th and 5th graders. I did this for many of the reasons stated in this post but mainly because I felt like a lot of bad online habits were already forming by the time students were in middle school. One of the most interesting discoveries in talking with 10 and 11 year olds wasn’t that they don’t know what a floppy disk was (although I found that depressing), it was that they were adept at identifying what information to not tell a stranger online.
They knew not to give out their personal information, address, credit card number, etc. whenever they were involved in an online discussion or game. However, when I showed them the terms and services agreements that often pop-up where a company wants access to your information, most just said they click “ok” or “I agree” and continue on (Parents are guilty of this too). A stranger can come in all different forms, from an online person acting like a child to a multi-million dollar company stealing your information and selling it to others.
Having kids check with their parents before downloading malware or accepting terms and agreements that make their data privacy vulnerable is important. When kids enter middle school, they are testing their independence and for the most part, decide they can make these choices for themselves. While it’s important that they gain some independence, we need to scaffold and build a foundation of understanding in them early on when it comes to their data privacy online. Otherwise, they might all be trying to give a Prince in Nigeria money by accident.
Learning How To Balance Life
Research shows that most habits and much of a child’s personality are formed by the age of 9. One thing we started working with our kids on as early as 4 was self-monitoring their screen time and appropriate times to use technology in everyday life. While we as parents don’t always model this the best, our kids have begun to internalize the best practices that come with using technology and social interactions in everyday life.
By scaffolding these skills early on in their life while their habits are forming, we will likely be more successful battling against things like internet addiction or social isolationism. Will there still be battles in the future as our kids become teenagers? Absolutely. But by building those habits in their early years, we’ll have a strong foundation to build on. My wife and I are far from perfect parents and still have moments where we battle this digital balance with our kids. However, as the years go on, we’ve found that our kids have become much more cognizant of an overuse of screen time. Recently, during my usual Sunday football viewing, my middle child told me, “I think that’s enough screen time for the day, let’s go out and play.” This type of internalized self-awareness doesn’t happen without tons of practice while they are in their highest habit-forming years.
Building Healthy Relationships
Part of that life balance besides just screen time, is building the skills to have healthy relationships both online and in person. Many adults and older teens, to whom the smartphone is still considered “new” have struggled with the management of peer-to-peer and parent-to-child interactions. Some of this is due to the instant gratification and distraction that comes with constantly checking our phones. Modeling when to be on our phones and when not to is one of the best ways to show how to have healthy relationships and interactions. Modeling can only go so far in teaching our kids the best practices of relationships though. Having some access to a device to “practice” and fully internalize this skill early on will help as they enter their later teen years.
Avoid Parent Shaming
At this point I should put a MAJOR disclaimer: This post is not to be considered a persuasive essay on why we should give every kid a smartphone at the age of 6. Let’s agree on something – every child and family is different. Some kids can easily handle the social pressures of online interaction early on in life. Others have noticeable changes in behavior just by having access to a screen for more than 5 minutes. Regardless of which child you are raising, teaching them to be digitally aware is not easy. But then again, neither is parenting.
Much in the way that I won’t judge or shame a parent that gives their child a phone in first grade, I won’t judge or shame a parent that has chosen to wait until they are in high school. We all carry with us a variety of ideals and ideas when it comes to raising our child. I have respect for those that are choosing to wait to give their kids a phone until later in life. A smartphone is an expensive device that requires a level of responsibility that some kids can’t manage. The truth is, as a parent, we’ll never know the perfect age to give our child their first smartphone.
But keeping it out of the hands of our kids hands because of our fears or worry of being shamed isn’t right either. This post is more meant to give parents that have chosen to give their kid a phone some skills to work on and be aware of. Why not take advantage of building those skills early on in life rather than later when the more harmful online encounters happen? Doing so could give your child an edge on their peers when it comes to online and social interaction. It could also create a trusting, open line of communication between child and parent throughout their teenage years and beyond.