Reviewing 2024 Bold Predictions

Every year I set out to try and predict some trends in education and educational technology. This past year, I knew AI would play a role so some of my predictions were based on that. Some predictions take a little more time to bake, while others happen pretty quickly. Others, are just plain misses. That said, like any prognosticator worth their salt, I always try and post an honest review of how my predictions fared this past year. Here’s a look:

Artificial Intelligence continued to burst on the scene this past year in education and all walks of life. It influenced

Prediction: AI will influence the 2024 Election

Outcome: Yes, but was this really that bold?

I stated earlier this year that this was a softball prediction. Yes, it had influence with spoofed ads, deep fakes, and even robo-calls cloning a candidate’s voice. One thing I didn’t predict was that one party would change candidates with 107 days to go, but hey, cut me some slack. I’m not even close to that Steve Kornacki guy, though I do like the way he rolls up his sleeves.

Prediction: A student will get suspended for deep faking

Outcome: This was a real winner, or was it?

As with any new technology dating back to the invention of the camera, people will find ways to utilize it for both good and evil. AI is no exception and as was somewhat easily predicted, students would use it to deep fake their teachers and others. One recent disturbing trend is the use of AI to create deep fake nudes of other students. Another is voice cloning, including this first of it’s kind case back in April when a teacher cloned a principal’s voice and then shared an audio recording of him saying racist and anti-Semitic things. These will get worse before they get better, but hopefully some future digital watermarks will keep us safe from our fake selves.

Prediction: The 3D printed diet becomes a fad

Outcome: Can they 3D print Ozempic?

Sometimes I completely miss the boat or the timing is not right. I think this could become a thing once 3D printers are more wide-spread, but the possibility still exists as I shared this video of an Australian company trying to make this happen. If it could somehow print those weight-loss wonder drugs for less than $1000 a month, it might actually take off.

Prediction: Hologram technology will mean the end of absences

Outcome: This prediction is hard to see

Even with the ability to learn remotely, students are still counted absent in traditional school settings if they are not physically present. We are still light years away from being able to learn on Star Trek’s Holodeck, but with companies like Holoconnects and the possibility of virtual reality, this could happen in my lifetime.

Prediction: Travis and Taylor will get married

Outcome: He got a ring, but she didn’t

I always throw in a couple fun predictions as was the case with this one. Had I thought about it, I should have known better as Taylor just wrapped up her epic and record-breaking Eras tour. Travis did get another Super Bowl ring, but alas, there was no time for nuptials this year…but hope springs eternal.

Prediction: The “AI Cheating” dilemma gets solved

Outcome: Can I peek at your paper to see if I got this right?

This past year I’ve been in front of over 10,000 educators in a variety of formats. Whether it was a keynote, webinar, or workshop, I always start with a framing question of “what concerns do you have around AI?” In 2023, academic integrity and cheating were a top concern, but this year that’s shifted more into loss of creativity and critical thinking skills as students take “the easy way out.” There are still loads of (faulty) AI cheat detection tools out there, but in reality, as I stated in the original post, teachers need to shift how they assess learning from product to learning process. The other option is to make AI a transparent part of the learning process as I shared in this post last April. Will the AI cheating dilemma ever get solved? Only if we change what students value most about school from grades to learning…and that I don’t think I can predict will ever happen.

Prediction: Apple Vision Pro Changes VR Experiences…for the worse

Outcome: Can’t see the forest through the virtual trees

Virtual and Augmented reality continue to remain on the periphery of education as the devices that provide truly immersive experiences tend to be way too expensive for schools to purchase. Apple’s $3500 whopper of a device really shows the possibility of what “XR” could look like but at its price point, there’s no way this will help schools. In fact, sales of the AVPs are all but dead at this point, pending a possible cheaper model in 2025. The good news, I got to see several of my colleagues don their new Meta Ray-bans, which at $300, make augmented and assistive AI tech more of an option for schools in the future.

Prediction: AI will help my latest book land on Audible

Outcome: Technically true, although…

Last spring, I tried to upload my entire book Learning Evolution into voice cloning software by ElevenLabs. After a few hours of recording and training my AI voice clone, the results were undesirable. I could get it to sound like me for a few paragraphs but after a while, my pitch and tone would oscillate unnaturally making it near impossible to listen. The good news is, it did motivate me to record my book myself, so in some ways, this prediction did come true as my book is now on Audible.

Prediction: New AI wearable becomes a Black Mirror episode

Outcome: Irritatingly close to true

The AI pin from Humane shared the promise of being in a more “screen free” world while still capturing the moments that matter the most to you. You could interact with the device with ease…at least it would seem. The reality is that the actual device was extremely clunky and buggy. Some users complained of skin irritation when the laser projection hits the skin for too long and the company had to recall its chargers as they were causing fires. So in some ways, this almost did become a Black Mirror episode but for completely different and equally wrong reasons.

Prediction: The Bammys come back and I’m the host

Outcome: Potential for eventual truth

“Some people have to see something to believe it. Others can believe something before they see it.” – Steve Jobs. I put this prediction out there as I was waxing reminiscent of the days of early Twitter and the amazing “Edu-celebrities” that I followed and impacted my career. The Bammy’s celebrited those educators in a way that mimicked the Grammy’s and Oscar’s. In a time when education needs some happy news, I love the idea behind the Bammy’s. What I didn’t predict was that my post would actually get in front of the eyes of the Bammy’s main producer. This would lead to a phone call and a great back story about how the event came to be and why it eventually ended. Is there an opportunity that it will come back? I’d say there’s a slim chance. Will I be the host if it does? Hopefully. But for now, I’ll have to shift to BlueSky to get my Twitter nostalgia fix.

Honorable Mention Predictions:

Here were a few last minute predictions I threw on at the end without explanation last year and how they did:

• KarAIoke becomes a fad – Outcome – Not quite but gaining steam, check out blog post about it.
• My children’s book will finally launch with an assist from AI image generation – Outcome – Still on the shelf.
• Adam Phyall releases his new book – Outcome – I’m still waiting!
• School boards fight back against book bans – Outcome – Not completely off the shelf
• AI invents a hit #1 TV show – Outcome – No, but with the launch of Sora (OpenAI’s video creator) there’s a greater chance this happens.

It’s been an amazing 2024 and I can’t wait to see what will happen in 2025. What are you thoughts? What predictions will you make? Comment below.

Carl Hooker is an international speaker and trainer. He works with schools and events across the country to thoughtfully integrate tools like AI into learning. His latest book Learning Evolution shares several examples, strategies and ideas to help schools navigate this landscape. If you are interested in booking Carl for your next event or professional development day, fill out this speaking form to get more information.