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Bold Predictions Sure to Go Wrong in 2015

magic8ballFor the past three years I’ve made an attempt at predicting what the future might hold for the Educational world, usually around the area of technology.  The truth is, anyone can predict fairly obvious things (like Google will be the number 1 search engine), so what I attempt to do here is make some daring predictions that may or may not come true (like Alta Vista will make a comeback! Ok…maybe not that daring).  Here’s a look at my 2013 and 2014 predictions which I also review every year to see how I did.  Some of my predictions that have gone right include my 2013 predictions that a non-Apple devices will rise up to challenge iPads in education (see Chromebooks) and my 2014 that a new form of social media will crop up with teens (see YikYak or Whisper).

And so, I present to you, my 2015 bold predictions that are sure to go wrong this year.

Classrooms will become automated

I’m not talking about the learning in the classrooms becoming automated, this is more about the low-hanging fruit in our schools.  Things like attendance, daily quizzes, etc can be done so much more efficiently with technology however they still require an element of human interaction (and teacher time).  I can see a future where a student walks into a classroom and the room “knows” he/she is there, thus eliminating the need for attendance (and saving hundreds of instructional minutes a year).  While this may seem big brother-ish and far fetched, I’m working with a company called Signal 360 that works on something called proximity marketing using uBeacon technology.  It wouldn’t be that far-fetched to see this one come true.

Pearson will lose its testing contract in Texas

pearson expired_edited-1With over 50% of the UK-based company’s income coming from the state of Texas and it’s500 million dollar contract, the people at Pearson could be sweating it this year as their contract comes up for renewal in the Lone Star state. It’s no secret that Pearson is now under investigation with the FBI for it’s back-room dealing done during the L.A. iPad fiasco.  Add to that a recent turbulent legislative session around standardized testing (finally!) and you start to see that Pearson could be in for a surprise this year when the contract comes up for renewal. Unfortunately (or fortunately if you are a Pearson-supporter) there are not really any other companies out there that can  swoop in and grab that contract, making this prediction probably more asinine than bold.  But here’s hoping….

Wearables will take over the world…and then regress

Between the Apple Watch (debuting in the next couple of months) and this gadget known as the “Ring” unveiled today at CES 2015, we’ve become smitten with wearable technology and the internet of things. I predict we’ll reach critical mass by mid-July, at which point someone will have vision problems from their Google Glasses (ala Naven Johnson’s OptiGrab invention) or get in a car accident trying to get driving directions from their watch thus resulting in the creation of the “People Against Wearables” (P.A.W.) activist group.

humanchargeA human battery level app will be invented

Realizing this is counter to the above prediction, wouldn’t it be great if you could see how much energy you had left by checking an app? (or better yet a projection on your arm via something like this)  “Sorry Bob, I’d like to work on that project with you but I’m only at 14% and I need to recharge.”  I’m hoping with all the wearable tech out there and the power of the internet, there will soon be a way to check this.  Think about how much more productive you could be if you knew this data?  Or better yet, what about if we knew this data about our students? The next step would be to invent a “Student Engagement Level” app. Now that would be something.

This year’s iPadpalooza APPmazing Race will bend the mind

Last year we premiered the APPmazing Race at our annual global event.  This year, we’re stepping it up a notch as teams will compete on a series of challenges throughout the 3-day learning festival.  At least one of the challenges we are working with in R&D is going to be pretty mind-stretching for teams participating.  I can’t wait to see what they come up with! (come join the spectacle this year by registering here)

3D Printers will become common classroom (& household) items

Again, thinking bold here, but with the rapid price drop from $10,000 to closer to the $1000 range for a 3D printer, it wouldn’t be far-fetched to think we could see these in everyone’s classroom (and house) at some point in the near future. Did you break that part on your washing machine or pencil sharpener?  Just download the instructions and print the replacement part!

Someone will complete the 21 things every 21st century educator should do

Based on my blog post from the fall on this subject, I’ve heard a few people try and do some of the items on the list.  It’s not meant to be a challenge, it’s more to inspire thinking and ways to integrate everyday technology that kids use into learning, however it would be cool if someone actually did all the items on the list (and then blogged about it.)  I’m working on a book version of this post too with Sean Junkins (see final prediction), so hopefully this will continue to grow and it would great to have an example of someone actually doing this to credit in the book.

Drones will make their way into education

Forget all this chatter about Amazon and military use of drones, when will they make their way into education? I’ve seen these given away at educational technology conferences, but I’ve yet to see any actual good application of drones in terms of learning.  I can see science really getting a boost from having access to this technology right away.  Imagine the old “egg drop” experiment recorded from an aerial view of a drone? Or how about athletics and band using a different view of their formations?

Someone will complete the Billy Madison #Student4aday Challenge…maybe me?

CarlMadisonIn December I took the #student4aday challenge and became a 10th grader for day.  It was enlightening in many ways but over the winter break I started to reflect on how well do we really know our students in all grades K-12?  A single day as a 10th grader is a start, but I’m thinking we need to dig deeper and expand the grade-levels of the challenge.  I would love for someone to complete what I’m calling “The Billy Madison #student4aday Challenge” based on the cult-classic movie staring Adam Sandler.  In the movie, Billy has to go through all grade levels from K-12 to get his diploma.  We should do the same thing! Rather than being passive about this, I’m going to challenge myself to be a student in every grade level at some point in the next year and challenge other administrators to do the same.  As the principal in the movie states, “Mr. Madison, that was be one of the most insanely idiotic things I’ve ever heard…” although my last prediction may be even more insane.

Carl Hooker will FINALLY publish a book

This has been on my radar for the past couple of years.  As I hear more and more people tell me “you should write a book!” I’m starting to believe it (I know…that’s a scary thought).  Even if my mom is the only one who buys it, I’m still hoping to publish something this year. I’ve got collaborations in the works on a couple of books and I’m working on a couple of my own ideas too…just need to find the time.

Some of these predictions I have direct control over and others I’ll be watching from a far (or on twitter) to see if they happen. At any rate, I get the feeling that 2015 will be another progressive year of change in the classroom when it comes to technology. And while some of these predictions may not come to fruition, I’m just happy to be a part of this change.

Happy new year everyone!

Reviewing my 2014 “Bold” Predictions for Ed Tech

This is the second year in a row I’ve made some predictions about the upcoming calendar year. (Here are my 2013 prediction reviews) I do this for a couple of reasons.  One is to stimulate my own thinking on what’s possible in education with technology. The other reason is to force myself to try something new in the upcoming year. These predictions are in fact “bold” and somewhat unlikely, but with the pace of change in technology you never know what is possible. Let’s take a look and see how my predictions turned out.

1. MOOCs rebound 

Outcome – A little

Screen Shot 2014-09-26 at 10.01.02 AM

Open to the world in 2015!

In the end of 2013, there was a lot of fervor around the quality of learning in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) and the amount of students that actually complete the course.  I actually took a MOOC (on the Walking Dead of course) last year just to see what it was like.  Like many of my 5000+ classmates, I didn’t finish the course.  That said, I don’t hear quite as much fuss about these as I did a year ago so there seems to be a little bit of leveling in the Ed Tech community about these courses.  This next year, I’m going to step it up and actually offer my own MOOC on Digital Parenting. (link here if you’d like to sign-up for free)  I have some predictions for how that will go, but we’ll save that for my 2015 prediction post.

2. Textbooks become obsolete –

Outcome – Not yet

This one was really trying (and hoping) to step out there and change the way we think about textbooks in schools.  The internet is our new textbook, but that is going to take time to change that traditional mindset in schools.  This year we’ll be working with our teachers to build their own “textbook” and I’m hoping that’s the tipping point to ridding ourselves of the overpriced “Big 3” textbook providers out there.

YikYak reared it's ugly head

YikYak reared it’s ugly head

3. A new social media platform will take off with teens –

Outcome – Yes….unfortunately

This prediction is not really that bold in retrospect.  Kids have been social media platform hoping for the better part of 3 years now thanks to us “old people” getting on Facebook. Last year it was SnapChat and Instagram.  This year it was YikYak and Whisper. Next year? Who knows.  We’ve had a personal experience with YikYak here in our district this year and I’m hopeful that wherever they go next, it will at least be for a positive experience.

4. Wearable tech makes its way into the classroom –

Outcome – On track

Google Glass was supposed to be a harbinger of things to come in technology (and education).  However, I still haven’t see the tipping point with this one. The fine folks over at Edudemic are doing their part releasing this “Teacher’s Guide to Google Glass in the Classroom” and here’s a handy infographic from TeachThought, but for the most part, it’s still too expensive to be used in everyday classrooms.  With the release of the Apple Watch in 2015, the wearable tech space just got a little more crowded.   That said, I’d be shocked to see a 1:1 Apple Watch school, though I’m sure it will happen. (imagine typing up your papers on that!)

5. Augmented Reality becomes reality

Outcome – True

I think with expansion of uses of Augmented Reality in learning (from NASA’s Mars Rover app to teacher fave Aurasma), this is an area of significant growth in education.  And why not?  With augmented reality you could take those boring textbook that has yet left the classroom and put a layer of augmented reality on top of it to make it interactive!

IMG_1246

Scaring the crowd at SXSW

 

6. My SXSW presentation on “Surviving the Digital Zombie Apocalypse” will make someone sick

Outcome – False, but…

Someone did almost shoot me in the streets of Austin.  Note to self: Next time you dress up like a zombie, make sure you aren’t in an open-carry state like Texas.

7. The classroom desk will truly die – 

Outcome – Not yet

After being a #Student4aDay a few weeks ago, I really think we need to rethink what we are doing to students.  I know what adults will say – “I sat in those desks when I went to school, so why can’t they?”.  The truth of the matter is, these things are just a notch above being a torture device.  It really makes you think…where are the most comfortable chairs in your district?  Who do they belong to? I’m hopeful this will change in my lifetime, or at least before my kids hit middle school.

8. My “Giving Up Google” for lent experiment will be the stuff of legends

Outcome – WRONG

Unlike my giving up email for lent experiment in 2013, I only lasted 3 days without a search engine of any type. I ended up asking people for help on social media or calling people whenever I had a question I couldn’t find the answer too. (essentially outsourcing my Google search)  Realizing I couldn’t lean on my friends and colleagues for 40 days (and have them remain friends and colleagues) I gave it up after the third day.

So that wraps up 2014.  Some interesting outcomes there and I already have a few in mind for 2015.  What are some things you predict for the next year?  Comment below and if I use it I’ll give you full credit!