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Review of 2016 Bold Predictions

review

Photo credit – goo.gl/YPq23i

Every year I since 2013, I like to take a few risks and attempt to predict which new trends will catch on in the world of education and ed tech.  Some years I’ll get it right, some I’ll get wrong. Among my best predictions were:

2015 – Pearson will lose its massive testing contract in Texas. (100% accurate prediction)

2015 – Drones will make their way into education (mostly true and happening now)

2015 – I will finally publish a book. (took until 2016, but it happened)

2014 – The “21st Century Skills” will be renamed something more appropriate and clever – (sort of happening now with “Future Ready” skills)

Of course, they ain’t all winners folks. Some of my more famous failed predictions were:

2013 – A non-Apple tablet will rule them all (Chromebooks now surpassed iPads in sales in schools, but they aren’t technically a “tablet”)

2015 – A human battery level app will be invented (not yet….)

All in all, I feel like my track record is about 50/50 on these. With that said, let’s see how I did on this past year’s bold predictions sure to be wrong:

Prediction – A school will try a self-driving bus

Outcome – not yet

I know this prediction seems completely unfeasible, but when you think about the practicality of it, should they get the safety part down, I think this will happen in the next 5-10 years. In fact, this year in Helsinki they actually have the world’s first self-driving bus, so it’s only a matter of time until education catches on.

Prediction – MYOT (“Make Your Own Textbook”) Becomes a Reality

Outcome – trending in the right direction

This is actually getting closer and closer to being a reality. With colleges like Rice’s Openstax and MIT’s Open Courseware now entering the fray, I think K-12 will continue to travel down this path sooner rather than later.

Prediction – A “Teen Social Media Prediction” app will be invented

Outcome – Wrong

The truth is, even if there was an app that could predict what kids were doing online it wouldn’t matter. As I wrote in this post (Everything is Social Media) last spring, technically, everything that kids do online can be social. From making comments on Amazon to chatting with friends on XBox, social media is here to stay and it doesn’t really matter if we can predict the next big platform or not.

Prediction – In a district far, far away….someone will develop Star Wars school.

Outcome – NO

Wishful thinking on my part. Learn we must. Create we will.

Prediction – Speaking of Star Wars…the Learning will awaken at iPadpalooza this summer

Outcome – True

We had one of our most engaging iPadpaloozas ever this past summer.  With the theme of “May the Learning be with You”, the event featured lightsabers, stormtroopers (in the bathroom even) and a bantha’s worth of high quality speakers and sessions. Can’t wait until 2017!  Here’s a highlight video of this year’s event:

 

Prediction – The Election Will Be Televised…via Periscope

Outcome – Mostly True

While I was right about the fact that social media would play a large role in the election, I was wrong about the tool.  Periscope and Facebook Live did play a role in the messages online, but in the end, it was the president-elect’s use of twitter to sway the masses that ended up tipping the tide in his favor. Whether you like him or not, in an age where “who ever says it first must be right”, the reality TV star played that card masterfully to craft his message and sway people into his camp. Now comes the hard part for him….actually being the president.

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Prediction – The “Undead” learning movement will happen!

Outcome – Still hopeful

As much as I would have loved a protest of broken #2 pencils being tweeted, snapped, and instagrammed out, this movement never quite took off. That said, more and more schools (like these in San Diego) are seeing the damage of too much standardized testing and thus reducing it from their daily practices.

Prediction – A School will go 1:1 cardboard

Outcome – Almost a reality

With the launch of Google Expeditions spreading like wild fire and the addition of Nearpod’s VR box, we are seeing more and more of these cardboard modeled phone-based VR goggles.  Zapbox even makes a headset that does mixed reality.  I’m a sucker for cool kickerstarters!

Prediction – I’ll Write a Children’s Book

Outcome – I still have a couple of weeks left

I’m in the middle of finishing my 6th book in the 6-book Mobile Learning Mindset series, so my time is very short here. That said, I have some early leads and a couple of ideas that might help me self-publish my first children’s book in 2017.  Here’s hoping!

So there you have it. Some winners. Some losers. Some that remain to be seen. Now comes the hard chore of researching trends from 2016 and attempting to gather them into some sort of coherent list for 2017.  Come back in January to see what crazy ideas come to fruition then and place your bets on which I’ll get right or…more than likely….wrong.

How Did the Textbook Go Extinct?

Our summer visit to the land before time

Our summer visit to the land before time

My daughters love talking about dinosaurs.  This summer we visited the dinosaur park in Cabazon, CA (made famous by Pee Wee’s Big Adventure) just so they could climb inside a dinosaur. I’ve shown my oldest the original Jurassic Park (not the scary parts) and she has begun to ask me, “Daddy, what happened to the dinosaurs?  Are there still some around? Did they become birds?”

Lots of questions and lots of theories but it’s made me think about our own educational landscape and the changes that have been happening dramatically the last 5-7 years when it comes to mobility, social media and content creation.  We still have a lot of dinosaurs walking the earth in education, namely the major textbook companies. What is going to happen to them?  Will they go extinct or evolve?

Today, I attended a State Board of Education session on “Educating the Digital Generation.”  I was pleased to see many educators like Scott Floyd (@woscholar) and superintendents like Randy Moczygemba (@rmocyzgembanb) present to share their frustrations and concerns around the digital textbook industry. (You can view their testimony here: http://www.house.state.tx.us/video-audio/) Screen Shot 2015-11-17 at 7.54.13 PMHowever, being that textbook publishing is a big business in education, the major textbook companies were also given time to not only defend their platforms, but also ask for more support.  The SBOE in Texas has some progressive members that support digital learning in schools but they also have some that seem to be steeped in learning from prehistoric times.  One such board member mentioned that “kids are stupid” when it comes to social media and that “using the slide rule is better for learning math than a graphing calculator.”

What does all of this mean for major textbook companies? I have an outlook for them, and judging by recent events, their future is bleak.  Let’s look at some signs that spell the demise of the “Big 3” (Pearson, HMH, and McGraw Hill) as well as the massive educational asteroid that will ultimately wipe them out.

Open Educational Resources

With the government’s recent push for more Open Educational Resources (OER) and the already massively available “flexbooks” through sites like CK12.org, we no longer have to purchase an expensive, unreliable online textbook from a major company.  Instead of spending millions upon millions of dollars on textbooks, districts can instead dedicate that money towards staffing, technology, and paid online resources that will actually help kids with learning.  In Texas, we have our Instructional Materials Allotment (IMA) which allows for “local control” of funds so districts can choose what they want to purchase when it comes to instructional materials.  However, the most recent statistics show that 93% of those dollars are spent on traditional textbook resources, mainly from the Big 3.  Why is that the case if there is still local control?  Primarily it’s the “safe” thing to do.  No district wants to stick their neck out too far to purchase something not vetted or…*gasp*…perhaps even save that money for other instructional uses.

Crowd Sourced Content

In addition to the OER resources out there, teachers and schools are sharing more than ever before.  Take a look at the hundreds of twitter chats happening online daily centered around education to see the explosion of sharing that is taking place.  Some of this sharing comes in the form of “paid sharing” via a program like TeachersPayTeachers.com.  I don’t begrudge an already underpaid teacher trying to make a buck (although profiting off other underpaid teachers is a slight concern), I do think the more open we are, the better the learning will be for our students.  I recently listened to Tim Berners-Lee, the “Father of the world wide web”, on the TED stage talking about how if he had made the internet cost money, it would have never turned into the great collective network that it is today. I think if we freely share resources and best practices, that crowd sourced content will ultimately make the Textbook-destroying asteroid even bigger.

MYOT (Make Your Own Textbook)

Ok, so a bit of a play on words of the BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) movement in Ed Tech, but when you take the OER resources and the crowd-sourced content being shared, why not just get the best teachers in the district or region and have them create their own book?  It’s not about the book, it’s about the learning standards right?  Paying teachers even HALF of what we pay textbook companies to make a better book, would not only save a district thousands, but also create a better product that is ultimately district-owned.  We’ve started down this road with the Texas History adoption, and during today’s state testimony, many districts reported successfully building and deploying their own “textbooks”.   I see this as the next evolution in content provision and can even see it further evolving to where kids start to create their own textbook.  After all, teaching the material is the best way to learn right? The meteor is approaching….

Publishers vs. Programmers

Some of the dinosaurs did indeed evolve and survived.  Those smaller mammals that were more nimble (i.e. smaller content publishers) survived and even thrived following the extinction level event.  When working with the Big 3, you must realize that they are publishers, not programmers.  I can’t begin to tell you the amount of man hours wasted with data uploads, failed ebook downloads, incorrect content, and massive lack of technical design when it comes to digital textbooks from the larger providers.  While I won’t mention names I can tell you that one company even creates a “bridge” product to connect it’s multiple products and product teams. Another when asked directly about integration with our student information system (SIS), stated that they “never mentioned it would be seamless.”

While you would think an eTextbook would save money, in many cases, because of how they are bundled, these cost districts almost the same amount of money.  In many ways these companies take fat checks from schools and districts all over the land to cover their massive bottom-lines, not to better serve districts.  The smaller, more nimble companies, on the other hand, start with programming and build a better project based on client feedback (that client being the teachers and students).

The Final Explosion and Aftermath –

Several districts here in Texas have started to join forces to fight these behemoths and their poor practices and heavy costs.  We’ve pleaded with them to join up with a company like Clever, which handles the automation of data from SIS to textbook company (at NO COST to the school or district).  Two of the three major textbook companies have told me that we “don’t need that kind of integration” or “sure it’s free for you, but it costs us.”  The fact that a company that gets millions of dollars from districts actually has the gall to say that is appalling.

And so, with this global killer approaching their industry, it’s obvious that the only thing keeping them alive is their sheer size and girth.  But like the dinosaurs, those that don’t evolve will become extinct.  And in some ways, maybe the educational world will be a better place because of it.

A textbook museum from the future?

A textbook museum from the future? Perhaps…