Making predictions can be a messy game. I mean not all of us can have a Miss Cleo in our back pocket for getting things right. Part of why I do these predictions is to get me to think about the future direction of educational technology, including some likely absurd ideas. The other part is what I’m doing right now; reflecting on the year that has been and how many of these actually came true. In looking at 2014’s review, I hit on a few, missed on a few (giving up Google for lent? C’mon!) and sort of in between on others. In January of this year, I made a set of ten more predictions that I thought were sure to go wrong in 2015 (remember, “bold” is in the title). Now for the moment of truth, let’s see how I did.
1. Classrooms will become automated
Outcome: Not yet
I’ve seen more sessions at conferences around the idea of automated or “smart” classrooms, but the technology is still a far ways off. I think as beacon technology becomes more ubiquitous and more and more devices enter schools, this one will become a reality. I do think with the recent debates over student privacy, we will have to go through some legal loopholes before a truly automated classroom becomes a reality.
2. Pearson will lose its testing contract in Texas
I am actually still in a state of shock that Texas would go a different direction, but with the exception of a few hold over assessments, we essentially dropped our contract with Pearson. While I’m still not sure that replacement system ETS is much better, one thing is for certain, those people looking for jobs scoring 4th grade writing tests on Craigslist are surely going to be disappointed.
3. Wearables will take over the world…and then regress
Outcome: Getting warmer
I made some jokes about the soon-to-be-formed P.A.W. (“People Against Wearables”) but in reality wearables came on like gang-busters in 2015, especially early in the year. After the Apple Watch hit the market, it became commonplace to see people checking their wrists for cute emoji-based text messages. While I heard some rumors of a school in Australia going 1:1 with Apple Watches (for health data research), I think the fervor over wearables, coupled with the afore mentioned data privacy has slowed down the wearable market. It still didn’t stop me from wearing this cool Matrix-like light up shirt at iPadpaloozaSouthTx this past summer!
4. A human battery level app will be invented
So we haven’t entered cyborg-level yet, but I can tell you this partially came true this week when my dad went in to replace the battery on his heart defibrillator. That’s close right?
5. This year’s iPadpalooza APPmazing Race will bend the mind.
Outcome: Not quite, but it was a blast!
We ramped up the challenges to over 30 in the 3 days of iPadpalooza and dozens of teams rose to the challenge. We had people doing “jumper” pics into swimming pools, putting bunny ears on Felix Jacomino, and tearing up the stage at lunch-time karaoke. The winning team each walked away with their own Apple Watch! All of this sets up for a crazy 2016 race as we continue to raise the bar and up the ante. Check out the highlight video here and be sure to register now as the early bird rates are going on through the holidays!
6. 3D Printers will become common classroom (& household) items
Outcome: Still a ways off
We did see the price of 3D printers continue to drop and even got introduced to these snazzy $99 3D doodler pens, they are not quite common place yet. I do think in several years we will be at a place where we can truly “download” the parts we need to fix something, but for now I’ll just patiently wait for hours as this machine prints out a mini-bust of my own head.
7. Someone will complete the 21 things every 21st century educator should do
Outcome: Not yet
This blog post made the rounds for the past year and half as a list of things every teachers should try to do in their classroom. Many tried it, but I’ve yet to find one person who completed all of them. Rather than rest on my laurels, I decided to up the game and create this “36 Weeks of Innovation” post for teachers to try one thing in their classroom every week. As of this writing, I know of many that have done some, but none that have done them all.
8. Drones will make their way into education
This was sort of a joke when I wrote it last January, but it is actually now becoming a reality. Last week we completed our national “Hour of code” and I saw many posts on social media about kids programming and coding their own drones. In fact, amazingly enough, I may have predicted what iPadpalooza Keynote Adam Bellow would do this year during his presentation. During the middle of his keynote, he use the Tickle App to successfully program and fly a drone out into the crowd and then watch it turn around and come back. Check out his full keynote (post on YouTube for the first time today!) below and watch the magic happen:
9. Someone will complete the Billy Madison #Student4aDay Challenge….maybe me?
Outcome: Not even close
I had grand plans this past year to follow up my #Student4aDay challenge in 2014 with a gauntlet of going through every grade level as a student. While I’m not dismissing this one for myself, I did see more and more people trying the #Student4aDay challenge in their own schools. I think it’s one of the best ways to really experience what kids go through on a daily basis as well as seeing how administrative decisions (like 1:1 technology) impact the classroom.
10. Carl Hooker will FINALLY publish a book
Outcome: TRUE! (in 2016)
This was more of a way to blackmail myself then anything, but after searching for a publishing house in early 2015, ISTE Publishing came knocking on my virtual door. I am excited to announce that I will be creating a 6-book series titled “Mobile Learning Mindset” in 2016 & 2017. Each book will focus on a different area of the school environment. The first two books (focusing on district and campus leadership) will hit shelves in early March of 2016. The last four books will dive into mobile learning in the classroom, professional learning, technical support and the role of parents and community during a mobile learning initiative. While I’m extremely honored and blessed to be a published author, I can tell you that it is NOTHING like blog writing. I’m hopeful that these books will go a long way in helping schools on their own mobile learning journey and can’t wait to see them in print (both real print and virtual).
And that puts a bow on 2015. All in all, I was surprised by some of the results and not so much about others. I’m now going to start brainstorming for 2016 and will publish those after the New Year. What did you think about these predictions? What predictions do you have for 2016? Comment below, and if I use it in my next post (as a “guest prediction”) I’ll give you full credit!
For the past three years I’ve made an attempt at predicting what the future might hold for the Educational world, usually around the area of technology. The truth is, anyone can predict fairly obvious things (like Google will be the number 1 search engine), so what I attempt to do here is make some daring predictions that may or may not come true (like Alta Vista will make a comeback! Ok…maybe not that daring). Here’s a look at my 2013 and 2014 predictions which I also review every year to see how I did. Some of my predictions that have gone right include my 2013 predictions that a non-Apple devices will rise up to challenge iPads in education (see Chromebooks) and my 2014 that a new form of social media will crop up with teens (see YikYak or Whisper).
And so, I present to you, my 2015 bold predictions that are sure to go wrong this year.
Classrooms will become automated
I’m not talking about the learning in the classrooms becoming automated, this is more about the low-hanging fruit in our schools. Things like attendance, daily quizzes, etc can be done so much more efficiently with technology however they still require an element of human interaction (and teacher time). I can see a future where a student walks into a classroom and the room “knows” he/she is there, thus eliminating the need for attendance (and saving hundreds of instructional minutes a year). While this may seem big brother-ish and far fetched, I’m working with a company called Signal 360 that works on something called proximity marketing using uBeacon technology. It wouldn’t be that far-fetched to see this one come true.
Pearson will lose its testing contract in Texas
With over 50% of the UK-based company’s income coming from the state of Texas and it’s500 million dollar contract, the people at Pearson could be sweating it this year as their contract comes up for renewal in the Lone Star state. It’s no secret that Pearson is now under investigation with the FBI for it’s back-room dealing done during the L.A. iPad fiasco. Add to that a recent turbulent legislative session around standardized testing (finally!) and you start to see that Pearson could be in for a surprise this year when the contract comes up for renewal. Unfortunately (or fortunately if you are a Pearson-supporter) there are not really any other companies out there that can swoop in and grab that contract, making this prediction probably more asinine than bold. But here’s hoping….
Wearables will take over the world…and then regress
Between the Apple Watch (debuting in the next couple of months) and this gadget known as the “Ring” unveiled today at CES 2015, we’ve become smitten with wearable technology and the internet of things. I predict we’ll reach critical mass by mid-July, at which point someone will have vision problems from their Google Glasses (ala Naven Johnson’s OptiGrab invention) or get in a car accident trying to get driving directions from their watch thus resulting in the creation of the “People Against Wearables” (P.A.W.) activist group.
A human battery level app will be invented
Realizing this is counter to the above prediction, wouldn’t it be great if you could see how much energy you had left by checking an app? (or better yet a projection on your arm via something like this) “Sorry Bob, I’d like to work on that project with you but I’m only at 14% and I need to recharge.” I’m hoping with all the wearable tech out there and the power of the internet, there will soon be a way to check this. Think about how much more productive you could be if you knew this data? Or better yet, what about if we knew this data about our students? The next step would be to invent a “Student Engagement Level” app. Now that would be something.
This year’s iPadpalooza APPmazing Race will bend the mind
Last year we premiered the APPmazing Race at our annual global event. This year, we’re stepping it up a notch as teams will compete on a series of challenges throughout the 3-day learning festival. At least one of the challenges we are working with in R&D is going to be pretty mind-stretching for teams participating. I can’t wait to see what they come up with! (come join the spectacle this year by registering here)
3D Printers will become common classroom (& household) items
Again, thinking bold here, but with the rapid price drop from $10,000 to closer to the $1000 range for a 3D printer, it wouldn’t be far-fetched to think we could see these in everyone’s classroom (and house) at some point in the near future. Did you break that part on your washing machine or pencil sharpener? Just download the instructions and print the replacement part!
Someone will complete the 21 things every 21st century educator should do
Based on my blog post from the fall on this subject, I’ve heard a few people try and do some of the items on the list. It’s not meant to be a challenge, it’s more to inspire thinking and ways to integrate everyday technology that kids use into learning, however it would be cool if someone actually did all the items on the list (and then blogged about it.) I’m working on a book version of this post too with Sean Junkins (see final prediction), so hopefully this will continue to grow and it would great to have an example of someone actually doing this to credit in the book.
Drones will make their way into education
Forget all this chatter about Amazon and military use of drones, when will they make their way into education? I’ve seen these given away at educational technology conferences, but I’ve yet to see any actual good application of drones in terms of learning. I can see science really getting a boost from having access to this technology right away. Imagine the old “egg drop” experiment recorded from an aerial view of a drone? Or how about athletics and band using a different view of their formations?
Someone will complete the Billy Madison #Student4aday Challenge…maybe me?
In December I took the #student4aday challenge and became a 10th grader for day. It was enlightening in many ways but over the winter break I started to reflect on how well do we really know our students in all grades K-12? A single day as a 10th grader is a start, but I’m thinking we need to dig deeper and expand the grade-levels of the challenge. I would love for someone to complete what I’m calling “The Billy Madison #student4aday Challenge” based on the cult-classic movie staring Adam Sandler. In the movie, Billy has to go through all grade levels from K-12 to get his diploma. We should do the same thing! Rather than being passive about this, I’m going to challenge myself to be a student in every grade level at some point in the next year and challenge other administrators to do the same. As the principal in the movie states, “Mr. Madison, that was be one of the most insanely idiotic things I’ve ever heard…” although my last prediction may be even more insane.
Carl Hooker will FINALLY publish a book
This has been on my radar for the past couple of years. As I hear more and more people tell me “you should write a book!” I’m starting to believe it (I know…that’s a scary thought). Even if my mom is the only one who buys it, I’m still hoping to publish something this year. I’ve got collaborations in the works on a couple of books and I’m working on a couple of my own ideas too…just need to find the time.
Some of these predictions I have direct control over and others I’ll be watching from a far (or on twitter) to see if they happen. At any rate, I get the feeling that 2015 will be another progressive year of change in the classroom when it comes to technology. And while some of these predictions may not come to fruition, I’m just happy to be a part of this change.
Happy new year everyone!