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Bold Predictions Sure to Go Wrong for 2019

It’s that time of year when we like to make resolutions, change part of our diet, and set out with some goals for our personal and professional selves. For me, this time of year marks an annual tradition of making some bold predictions that I think might come true in the coming year. Last year was by far my most successful year of predictions coming true (or mostly true), so with my new found (false) confidence, I’ve decided to really step it up this year with my prognostications.

I realize that some of this may seem far-reaching, but hey, I said “BOLD” right?  Also, in looking back at some of my previous years, I noticed that my time frame may have been off by a year or two, but they still came true….eventually. (For the record, I don’t count those as accurate predictions)  These predictions are a mix of technology, education, and some fun. Part of what makes this interesting is your feedback, so please drop your bold predictions in the comments below the post. Even if it’s crazy!

Virtual Reality takes fright…er….flight in the classroom

This past holiday, my lovely wife surprised me with an Oculus GO VR headset. This all-in-one headset doesn’t require a computer or a phone to use and within a few minutes of use, I immediately become both motion sick and mesmerized with possibilities in Education. Even though the graphics aren’t quite there yet, just the experience of riding on a virtual roller coaster or even looking out the window of a 97-story building immediately immerse you in the world.  Imagine what that could look like in a classroom?  I know that Google Expeditions and Nearpod 360 Cities do some of this, but the world I’m envisioning has interactions with the students. Imaging taking part in the American Revolution or being able to be a member in the audience during Mozart’s “Marriage of Figaro“?  Or better yet….why not put yourself in the shoes of the actual conductor?  With the now lower cost of these all-in-one devices and the mobility (no more lugging around a huge desktop) I can see a near future where Interactive VR plays a role in the learning experiences of our kids.

The Universal Translator will make learning a foreign language obsolete

This past couple of years, Google and other companies have really tried to capitalize on the idea of having a Universal Translator (think Ohura from Star Trek). The current versions of this are still fairly clunky, but I can see a not so distant future where learning a foreign language might not be that important. This doesn’t mean that all those LOTE (Languages Other Than English) teachers will be out of a job though. With an effective universal translator, knowing the culture and customs of foreign lands will become even more important should you accidentally say or gesture the wrong thing.

Alexa will accidentally burn down someone’s house

Ok, so this one is a little morbid, but is it really that far-fetched?  I wrote this post last year about When Smart Homes Attack about how my kids almost froze and starved to death because I changed the wireless router on a snow day. There are a TON of smart home devices coming out of CES this week (including this awesome SMART block of wood) and with the “Internet of Things” taking over homes across the country, there are some inherent dangers. Like imagine someone asking Alexa to play Turn up the Heat by Justin Bieber only to have it accidentally fire up the fireplace or stove? I see a future Black Mirror episode or crime novel in our future where someone hacks the smart home to kill its inhabitants.  (Ok…this is getting way too dark now)

Netflix will launch an EDU Version of its service

I’ve been pitching this to higher-ups at Netflix for the past couple of years, but all my emails and tweets go without a response. It seems to me that this is an opportunity for Netflix to expand its service to the educational market. My daughters already have their own customized channels full of educational content like Bill Nye and Magic School Bus. Netflix even offers one-time educational screening permission for certain programs and movies. We don’t want an educational environment where kids are just mindlessly consuming content, so this would have to be done with some fidelity, but I think there could be a potential use case where the teacher acts as the moderator of customized content for each student under a EDU subscription. Instead of binge watching…there would be binge learning!

Restaurants will post non-device zones similar to non-smoking areas

It seems that more and more we are facing an internal conflict of too much screen time (remember the smart wood I mentioned earlier?). Associated with us being glued to our screens is the feeling that we are doing too much “nocializing” (going out with friends only to be on your phone the entire time) rather than actual interaction. Don’t believe me? Walk through the airport sometime and see how many strangers are interacting with each other. Our district just went through a lengthly process evaluating our own use of technology in the classroom. The major concerns around screen time in schools is a valid one especially when you couple it with the heavy use of screens at home with kids after school. One of the major outcomes of our research was that we need to really educate and promote the purposeful use of technology in and out of schools. This isn’t just a school problem, it’s a social one. I predict that this year, in response to this, we will see restaurants begin to set up non-device zones for those that choose to not have their devices out. The only exception will be for people using their phone to read this post. (Ha!)

Someone will write a blog/paper using only predictive text

Imagine the world of the future and we can have access to our new home app using a mobile device?  (that was all written with predictive text…scary isn’t it?)  Surely someone will use predictive text to send a love letter, submit a college paper or even write out their wedding vows (see next prediction). Felix Jacomino actually crowd-sourced his predictive text poem a couple of years ago for his Ed Tech Poetry Slam. Here’s an example of a comedian who has re-written the Avengers script using predictive texts using an online tool called botnik. This could be a terribly lame prediction (begin predictive text) but it would also make the best way to play with some friends.  Um….okay?

A couple will get married over Facetime

A couple of years ago I became an ordained online minister in order to be the officiant at my buddy Chris Parker’s wedding. It seems to me, that if for $50 and an online application I can become ordained, then surely some couple out there can be married without being physically in the same location. In doing some quick internet digging, it appears that getting married over the internet is still not legal. However, my guess is that with modern laws being updated all the time and with the hustle and bustle of our modern lifestyles, someone will get married via video chat. Some questions I would have around this would be: Do they have to put it online so there are witnesses? Can the officiant be virutal as well or can they be married by a virtual assistant (A.I.)? How do you kiss the bride? I can hear it now: “Do you have the Ring (camera)?”

There will be a FortniteEDU for schools

Remember when people laughed at the thought of Minecraft ever making its way to the classroom? A Microsoft buy-out later, MinecraftEDU has made it into our schools. Imagine a Battle Royale where you have to solve math problems to get weapons or complete a simile to get a shield potion? Doesn’t seem that far-fetched now does it? If anyone can make this happen, my money would be on Mike Washburn who has already done some work in this space. He was the first educator I can recall showing and presenting the educational values of Minecraft way back when. C’mon Mike! Make it happen!

Kohler’s new smart toilet

A SMART toilet will save someone’s life

Yes, these are a thing. It seems hard to imagine, but considering there is now something called “Poo Purri”, it doesn’t seem that far fetched. In fact, Kohler just announced their high-end smart toilets complete with mood lighting and built in speakers. While that’s cool, futurist Michio Kaku predicts in this video that smart toilets have the potential to detect a finite amount of cancer cells before it grows into a tumor. How incredible would that be? Also, I’m posting this because I have some guilt from an earlier prediction claiming that a smart home would kills someone (there’s always a balance, right?) These toilets will have an impact in schools and public sector jobs too as they will have the ability to detect drugs/alcohol in student-athletes or politicians, which could get real interesting…

LearnFestATX will again break the rules when it comes to a conference

Last year, as we transitioned from iPadpalooza to LearnFestATX we went into “beta” mode to test out some new concepts to engage adult learners. Admittedly, not all of them were great. However, a few of the ideas were HUGE successes that we plan to feature along with other unique engagement mechanisms this June. From silent disco keynotes to the “What’s HOT in Ed Tech” challenge, this summer’s event in Austin will hit you on all fronts. This year’s theme is “Ready Learner One” with a play on classic video games from our past. So if you’re ready to Dig Dug deeper, be sure to register now as this is should to be a Knock Out!  (FYI – we are also accepting calls for proposals until Feb. 8 – accepted presenters can be part of the fun for FREE)

Robotics enter mainstream curriculum

Largely due to costs and complex programming, robotics has remained an after-school program or secondary elective. However, with new models of robotics like Sphero and Trashbots hitting the market at an affordable price AND coming with easy-to-use curriculum integration tools, this will be the year that robot goes from a “fun Friday” activity to mainstream. I may be cheating a bit on this one as Fred Benitez recently shared some science teachers at our middle school doing that very thing with Sphero and Anatomy:

 

THIS will be the year my children’s book series actually gets published

Third time is a charm right? I’ve had this false prediction on this post for the last two years and I think it’s time to make it happen. I even bought a website for it this past weekend so it better become a reality even if no one buys it. 🙂

There you have it. Twelve different bold predictions (a record for this post) on things I believe will happen during 2019. Like I stated at the beginning, I would love your thoughts on crazy, bold ideas that could happen in our near future as well. Comment below and thanks for reading!

Happy New Year everyone!

A Look Back: Bold Predictions for 2017

This marks the 5th year I’ve laid out a series of bold predictions around education and technology. Some years I’ve hit it out of the park (like in 2015 when I predicted Pearson would lose it’s massive testing contract in Texas) and others I’ve totally flubbed (like in 2013 when I said a non-Apple tablet would lead in educational sales).

Going back over the 30+ predictions I’ve made, I would say that about half of them have now come true. So while I may not be a Carnac the Magnificent, I’d say I’m just a step above Miss Cleo.

Let’s take a look back at this year’s predictions and see how close they came to becoming a reality.

Prediction: A Dual-Language school will open with coding as the second language

Outcome: Nailed it! (sort of)

More and more coding is getting integrating into the curriculum and not just become a thing to do on Fridays or for one hour in December. That said, we are still a long ways away from it truly being thought of as a second language. The state of Texas did pass a law this year that  counts coding as a foreign language credit, but only if a student has attempted and been unsuccessful in a traditional foreign language course. (See item 74.12.(b)(5)(B)(iv) buried deep in the TEA rules). However, some schools have now started to embrace coding as a second language and some schools (like Willmore Elementary in California) have started their own “Coding Immersion” programs in elementary.

Prediction: The POTUS will use SnapChat to give the State of the Union

Outcome: Wrong social media platform

I may have been stretching it but if you think back, I wrote this post prior to Trump taking office. Little did I know how he would utilize social media (Twitter specifically) to press forward not only his agenda but also some crazy tweets early in the morning to insult random people in the press. Thinking back at this first year in his presidency, I don’t know how far-fetched it would be for him to tweet out the next #sotu rather than deliver it. And who thought this was a good idea?

Prediction: The Learning “Movement” will take center stage at this year’s iPadpalooza

Outcome: Almost

We did take a stab at some “walk n’ talk” sessions and of course with the APPMazing Race, had people running all over the place. However, with this year being the LAST year of iPadpalooza, I will say that in the future the movement will shift more towards “learning” as we prepare to launch the next iteration of the Learning Festival formerly known as iPadpalooza. (stay tuned to http://theLearningFestival.com for more news coming in 2018)

Prediction: Someone will invent a PokemonGO type app for education

Outcome: Not quite

Much like the PokemonGO movement, this idea had legs early, but hen fizzled out. However, as you may see with a later prediction, this could be a possibility in our future.

Prediction: Data actually gets sexy

Outcome: Maybe not sexy, but mildly attractive?

There have been a slew of companies trying to make headway in this arena around Ed Tech tools lately.  The one I mentioned in this piece last year (CatchOn) has grown leaps and bounds and is now receiving almost a Terabyte of data from over 10 Billion data points. All that data is taking us from this exploratory phase of Ed Tech towards a more robust and meaningful approach to how we use learning technology and applications in our school. I’m excited for the future, even if it’s not sexy…yet.

Prediction: Mixed Reality makes it’s way into the mainstream classroom

Outcome: Still a ways off

My excitement for mixing virtual and augmented worlds in our classrooms may still be way off base, but I think the concept still makes some sense. We have static classrooms with dynamic devices, why not have kids explore Mars while walking across the hall or visit Egyptian tombs while drawing hieroglyphics in Art class? The possibilities are endless.

Prediction: VR-Enhanced Movies!

Outcome: It’s here…just not mainstream yet

A couple of months after I made this prediction I was made aware of the documentary “Clouds Over Sidra“.  This film was created for the United Nations with the intention of making government officials “feel” what it was like to be a 12-year old girl growing up in a Zaatari Refugee Camp in Jordan. The responses from U.N. Officials were overwhelming, not only from the story but from the immersion into Sidra’s world via Virtual Reality. While this has all sorts of real-world applications, like the documentary, I’m curious to how this could affect education for the better. And more importantly, how long until George Lucas re-releases Star Wars in VR? I can’t wait to be sitting inside the Millennium Falcon next to Han and Chewy.

Prediction: The Classroom becomes “Smart” with Frank

Outcome: “I’m sorry, I didn’t get that.”

In this prediction I joked about a future classroom where much of the “low-hanging fruit” were taken care of by a digital teaching assistant called Frank. Much like Alexa and Google Home, Frank can respond to questions but also control various aspects of the classroom (imagine automated attendance!?). With the Internet of Things (I.O.T.) still in the early stages of consumer use, we likely wouldn’t see this in our classrooms for a few more years. In the meantime, we’ll have to settle for using our fingers to type out important internet searches like “When was the battle of 1812?”

Prediction: I finally publish my first children’s book…and this time I mean it!

Outcome: In progress

For the last couple of years, I’ve ended with this threat…er….prediction. It took me a couple of years of motivation, but I finally found both the story and the medium with which I want to create my first children’s book. (Check out my “7 Strange Things You Didn’t Know You Could Do in Keynote” post for a hint)  While I haven’t published the book yet, it’s about half-way finished and should be ready for release in the Spring of 2018. Stay tuned for more details on that and if anyone knows of a good children’s book publisher…send them my way.

So that wraps up another year of bold predictions. I have to say that this past year was my best year so far, but I don’t want to start patting myself on the back quite yet. Now it’s time for me to go into my private bunker and strategize what will make 2018 list. Flying school buses? Self-tying tennis shoes? Tune in to find out.

Until then, see you on the other side.